Description
Country
Focus area
The initiative provides a long-term overview of the likely development of labour demand and supply in terms of qualifications and occupations. The QuBe basic projection reflects labour market development if existing trends and modes of behaviour continue to apply in the education and training system and in the economy. It thus makes a consistent pathway of development visible.
Link
Reference/weblink
Implementation level
At what level is the initiative implemented?
National
Legal base
Legal base (E.g. Law, regulation, implementing provision, other)
The project has three project partners (BIBB; IAB and GWS) and each is reponsible of and finances specific aspects of the project: https://www.bibb.de/en/11959.php
Starting period
TIMESPAN: In what year did the initiative commence?
2010, the 2020 projections were made available in the 6th wave of the project
Perspective
PERSPECTIVE: is the initiative based on evidence derived from skill forecasts or foresight activities?
The sixth wave of the BIBB-IAB qualifications and occupation projections updates the development of labour supply and labour demand up until the year 2040 in a differentiated way by 141 occupational groups (three-digit code of the German Classification of Occupations 2010) and in accordance with four qualifications and requirements levels.
Policy area
To which POLICY AREAS(s) does the initiative apply?
Funding
How it is funded?
Other
Funded by IAB and BiBB.
Skill mismatch
Skill mismatch target
What type(s) of skills MISMATCH does the initiative aim to addresses?
Skill shortages (employers cannot fill their vacancies due to a lack of skills in the labour market)
Other
The reports includes an indicator to evaluate the skilled worker situation in Germany.
Skills matching focus
How does the initiative address skills mismatches?
The initiative highlights possible skills shortages within occupations allowing individuals to choose career paths/studies accordingly
Firms can adjust their hiring/training strategies and individuals trainings matching the occupation shortages
Skills delivered
What types of skill does the initiative deliver?
Career management skills
Methods
Methods
What methods of undertaking skills assessments and / or skills anticipation does the policy instrument utilise?
Skills forecasting
The idea behind the concept of the QuBe Project is to update past correlations in the education and training system and on the labour market that are observed in the basic projection. For details, please see https://www.bibb.de/en/11733.php.
Use of skills intelligence
How is labour market information / skills intelligence used within the initiative?
The information can be used by both individuals and enterprises to decide about qualifications/trainings necessary to match skills required in each occupation.
The detailed projection results can be viewed on the QuBe Data Portal (https://www.bibb.de/de/qube_datenportal.php) and therefore acessed by students in order to inform career-making decisions.
The detailed projection results can be viewed on the QuBe Data Portal (https://www.bibb.de/de/qube_datenportal.php) and therefore acessed by unemployed in order to inform job-search decisions.
The detailed projection results can be viewed on the QuBe Data Portal (https://www.bibb.de/de/qube_datenportal.php) and therefore acessed by enterprises or sector organisations in order inform/enable strategic business decisions.
Stakeholders
Main responsible body
Main body or organisation with overall responsibility for the initiative.
National agency
The Institute for Labour Market and Career Research (IAB) of the Federal Employment Agency shares the leadership of the QuBe project with the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) in terms of specialisms and content. The focus of the IAB in this respect is on the demand side of the labour market. Projections of requirements generated as part of the QuBe project are thus financed by the IAB and forecasts of demand for qualifications are also being prepared by them.
National PES
The Institute for Labour Market and Career Research (IAB) of the Federal Employment Agency shares the leadership of the QuBe project with the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) in terms of specialisms and content. The focus of the IAB in this respect is on the demand side of the labour market. Projections of requirements generated as part of the QuBe project are thus financed by the IAB and forecasts of demand for qualifications are also being prepared by them.
Other involved organisations
Which other organisations have a role in the initiative?
Research centres, universities
The Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS mbH) is developing macroeconomic forecast and simulation models upon which the QuBe project's long-term projections and the scenarios are based.
Beneficiaries
Who are the intended beneficiaries?
Other
Both individuals and enterprises can decide about qualifications/trainings necessary to match skills required in each occupation. Results are also discussed in the press and by policy makers, social partners, associations, etc.
Sustainability
Success factors
SUCCESS FACTORS in the implementation
The project represents the most regular labour market forecast in Germany.
Monitoring and evaluation
MONITORING and EVALUATION: Is progress measured regularly? What are the indicators used to measure progress of the policy instrument? Have any evaluations been conducted?
The methodology is updated regularly.
Updates
UPDATES: whether there have been any major updates of the initiative since it has been implemented?
Yes
Different focus points of analysis are set from wave to wave (e.g. digitisation of the labour market or immigration).
Effectiveness
EVIDENCE ON EFFECTIVENESS: How effective is the policy instrument?
Evaluations of the project are not available, results of the forecast are however regularly discussed in the press, by policy makers and relevant stakeholders.
Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY: How sustainable is the policy instrument? Do you expect the instrument to continue over the next few years and why?
The policy instrument is sustainable and the wide availability of microdata allows to adjust the methodology to macro/micro changes over time.
Other instruments in Germany
On this page: