Description
Country
Focus area
Short-term labour market forecasts are based on an econometric forecasting model and are reported once a year. They contain information on the future demand for labour by occupation and education level and provide an indication of skills mismatches. The aim of the short-term forecasts is to provide updated information about the most in-demand occupations and support the development of training programmes for both unemployed and employed people.
Link
Reference/weblink
Implementation level
At what level is the initiative implemented?
National
Legal base
Legal base (E.g. Law, regulation, implementing provision, other)
The Law on Support for Unemployed Persons and Persons Seeking Employment states that the National Employment Agency is responsible for conducting short term labour market forecasts
Starting period
TIMESPAN: In what year did the initiative commence?
Since 2013, the SEA labour demand short-term forecast is made using an econometric model. In 2018 the model was improved.
Perspective
PERSPECTIVE: is the initiative based on evidence derived from skill forecasts or foresight activities?
Short-term forecasts are based on econometric forecasting model and are enhanced by data from employer surveys and the LFS
Policy area
To which POLICY AREAS(s) does the initiative apply?
Funding
How it is funded?
Funded by national government
Funded by the EU
ESF co-financing
Skill mismatch
Skill mismatch target
What type(s) of skills MISMATCH does the initiative aim to addresses?
Skill shortages (employers cannot fill their vacancies due to a lack of skills in the labour market)
Skill gaps (worker's skills are below the level of proficiency required by their employers and jobs)
Skills matching focus
How does the initiative address skills mismatches?
The forecast provides information on changes in the labour demand by occupational groups.
The forecast provides information on labour market demand (vacancies) and employment by occupational groups and by regions.
Methods
Methods
What methods of undertaking skills assessments and / or skills anticipation does the policy instrument utilise?
Skills forecasting
The econometric forecasting model is used in preparing the short-term forecast
Employer surveys
Since 2017 the employer survey is conducted annually and supports the preparation of short-term labour market forecast
Use of skills intelligence
How is labour market information / skills intelligence used within the initiative?
State Employment Agency is using the forecast results in planning training programmes and measures for unemployed.
Forecast helps to identify labour market needs which then form the basis for career guidance.
Stakeholders
Main responsible body
Main body or organisation with overall responsibility for the initiative.
National PES
State Employment Agency of Latvia (SEA)
Other involved organisations
Which other organisations have a role in the initiative?
National ministry
Ministry of Economy contributes with providing additional data. Ministry of Welfare is supervising the work of the SEA.
Other
The Central Statistics Bureau and the State Revenue Service are providing data used for conducting the forecast.
Beneficiaries
Who are the intended beneficiaries?
Employed adults at risk of job displacement
Forecast provides assistance for the unemployed, job seekers and those at the risk of unemployment, to increase their competitiveness in the labour market. Forecast results are used in preparing recommendations for developing and implementing measures aimed at reducing unemployed, and supporting unemployed, those looking for work and those at risk of unemployment.
Other
Forecast provides assistance for the unemployed, job seekers and those at the risk of unemployment, to increase their competitiveness in the labour market. Forecast results are used in preparing recommendations for developing and implementing measures aimed at reducing unemployed, and supporting unemployed, those looking for work and those at risk of unemployment.
Sustainability
Success factors
SUCCESS FACTORS in the implementation
Short-term labour demand forecasts are available freely on the SEA website. It provides the most up-to-date and reliable information about the labour market developments, changes and short-term future trends at national and regional level.
Monitoring and evaluation
MONITORING and EVALUATION: Is progress measured regularly? What are the indicators used to measure progress of the policy instrument? Have any evaluations been conducted?
There are no specific evaluations conducted. The State Employment Agency reports briefly on the short term forecast as part of its annual report but no specific indicators for measuring progress have been developed.
Updates
UPDATES: whether there have been any major updates of the initiative since it has been implemented?
Yes
In 2018 the econometric model, that was used in the short-term forecast, was improved.
Effectiveness
EVIDENCE ON EFFECTIVENESS: How effective is the policy instrument?
Short-term forecasting of the labour market is an effective tool for analysing the situation in the near future (within a year). The tool is widely used to compile statistics about most in-demand occupations and support the development of training programmes for both unemployed and employed people.
Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY: How sustainable is the policy instrument? Do you expect the instrument to continue over the next few years and why?
The short-term forecasts are expected to continue. The State Employment Agency in cooperation with the Ministry of Economics, are working on establishing a comprehensive system of anticipating changes in the labour market.
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