Skills anticipation in Bulgaria (2023 Update)

Summary

Overview of the Bulgarian approach

In Bulgaria, there is no comprehensive skills governance approach in place. However, skills governance and skills anticipation methodologies have been rising in the country’s policy agenda. Key developments between 2009-2014 and 2015-2019 were co-funded by the European Social Fund (ESF) under the OPs Human Resources Development including perhaps the most important one: the creation of a Competence Assessment System, “MyCompetence”, which was in charge of developing and updating 370 competence models of key job positions in 25 economic sectors. In 2013, Bulgaria adopted a formal mechanism for including the results of forecasts of labour supply and demand in developing and implementing government policies. This clarified the roles of the institutions involved in the process of skills anticipation. The main government institutions develop annual reports on the effects of the forecasts on policy formulation and design. These reports feed into an annual synthesis published by the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy (MLSP).

In the OP Human Resources Development for the period 2014-2020 Bulgaria set up inter-institutional cooperation between the education sector and businesses to support skills matching as a priority. In this regard, the “MyCompetence” approach to stakeholder involvement is considered an effective model and offers potential for further development at sectoral and regional levels. The MyCompetence involves employers, managers, advisors, consultants, experts from governmental bodies, educational providers and other institutions and is in charge of the development and update of the competence models.

Between 2017 and 2019, Cedefop carried out a national review of the skills governance approach in Bulgaria, at the request of the Bulgarian authorities. Cedefop’s review highlighted that existing skills anticipation activities should be better linked and coordinated. Skills intelligence stemming from skills anticipation can support policy making on allocation of human and financial resources, guide decisions on programmes and curricula in vocational education and training that will be better reflecting labour market skill needs.

OECD is in the process of supporting Bulgaria to develop an action plan for skills policy. This is done through two consecutive projects: during the first one (which ended in February 2023) the OECD assessed the performance of the Bulgarian skills system and proposed numerous recommendations (OECD 2023). Simultaneously, OECD started working on the second project (expected to conclude in 2024), partnering with DG Reform, in developing a Technical Support Instrument (TSI) to support Bulgaria in its efforts to implement the recommendations emerging from the OECD Skills Strategy project and other relevant Bulgarian strategies.[i] The National Skills Strategy may potentially cover activities related to the further development of skills anticipation mechanisms in Bulgaria.

Description

Skills anticipation activities in the country include:

• Skills assessment carried out by the National Network for Competence Assessment (NNCA). The NNCA is run by a Council which is supported in its activities by the National Competence Assessment Centre (NCAC). In turn, the NCAC is supported by Sector Skills Units and Regional Competence Assessment Centres;
• Employment and skill forecasts undertaken by the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy (MLSP)[ii];
• Skills foresight activities at the occupational level carried out on an ad hoc basis by branch associations and social partners;
• Other activities, such as regular employers’ surveys e.g., carried out by the National Employment Agency (NEA).

A model of skills assessment was developed and implemented with funding from the ESF (2009-2013). The project ‘Development of Workforce Competence Assessment System by Sectors and Regions’ was managed by the social partners – Bulgarian Industrial Association (BIA), in partnership with the Confederation of Independent Trade Unions in Bulgaria (CITUB) and the Confederation of Labour Podkrepa (CL Podkrepa) – and led to the creation of the NNCA. Amongst other activities, the NNCA provides online competence assessments, free of charge, at the National Competence Assessment System (previously called Workforce Competence Assessment System), the ‘MyCompetence’ portal. This is an online system that provides information, tools and specialised services for assessing the competences of the labour force in Bulgaria. The portal comprises four main components: sector competency models, competence assessment, economic sector information, and e-learning and development resources. For instance, each competence model encompasses description of the job position, tasks and responsibilities, qualifications required as well as knowledge, skills and competences. Competences are grouped in three clusters: core competencies, managerial competencies and specific competencies. Competences are in line with the National Qualifications Framework. MyCompetence also provides self-assessment tools for the identification of skills gaps and an e-learning platform for upskilling.

Skills forecasts were initiated by the Council of Ministers in 2013[iii] and are the responsibility of the MLSP. These forecasts are based on a macroeconomic model and incorporate data from surveys of employers, the National Statistical Institute (NSI), the National Social Security Institute (NSSI), the National Revenue Agency (NRA), and the National Employment Agency (NEA), an executive agency of MLSP (Cedefop, 2020a). With financial support from the ESF (2013-2015), through the project ‘Development of a system for forecasting the needs of labour force with certain skills and characteristics’, the MLSP has undertaken skills forecasting and published a long term forecast on labour force supply and demand for the period 2014-2028.[iv] In 2019, the MLSP published Medium-term and long-term forecasts for the development of the labour market in Bulgaria. Factors of labour demand, employment trends, regional and educational imbalances (2008–2032). This document concerned a new long-term forecast of the Bulgarian labour market, and it was co-funded by the ESF. The methodology used in the forecast provides a basis for the preparation of future forecasts to be funded by the MLSP. Information published on the MLSP website does not clarify whether and how the forecasts have been updated since 2019.

Other instruments for the analysis of skills demand include regular employers’ surveys by the NEA[v] and the collection and analysis of quantitative data collected through local labour offices. Sector specific skills foresight activities are also undertaken.

Aims

The mission of the NNCA is to “enhance labour market adaptability and effectiveness, as well as to strike a greater balance of labour market demand and supply by developing a system for workforce competence assessment by sectors and regions”. The aims of the MLSP forecasts are closely linked to the country’s labour market policy aims. Labour market policy is oriented towards ensuring that the supply of labour is aligned to the qualifications, skills, and competences in demand in the labour market. This is set out in the annual National Employment Action Plan (NEAP). My Competence aims to support and initiate effective measures (at sector and regional level) for employment and skills development of Bulgaria’s workforce.

Legal framework

The most important legal document relevant for skills anticipation and the systematic use of its results is the 2013 Council of Ministers’ Decision on the ‘Mechanism for including the results of foresights of supply and demand of labour in developing and implementing government policies’. The Decision outlines, among other things, the role of individual institutions regarding skills anticipation. According to the Mechanism, the MLSP has the main responsibility for governance of skills anticipation and provision of annual reports on the labour market needs, based on employers’ surveys and official data from the NSI, the NEA, and the NSSI.

Overall, much of the regulation on vocational education and training (VET) highlights the importance of skills matching and meeting the needs of the labour market,[vi] which can be supported by skills needs anticipation. The ‘Strategy for the Development of VET 2015-2020’ encourages cooperation and partnership amongst VET institutions and employers to bring about better matching of skills provision to labour market needs. In addition, the ‘Strategy for the Development of Higher Education 2021-2030’ seeks to strengthen the links between the needs of the labour market and higher education providers. Strategic framework for the development of education, training and learning in the Republic of Bulgaria (2021 – 2030) is broader since it includes lifelong learning. It highlights the following priority activities relevant to VET:

• Creation and development of partnerships between business and education to conduct student practices, to share equipment and exchange resources.
• Conducting surveys among employers at sectoral, regional, and national level to determine the necessary skills and qualifications required by the labour market.

Governance

In accordance with the ‘Mechanism’ the MLSP is primarily responsible for the governance of skills anticipation. The Mechanism states that the responsibilities of the MLSP include providing regular reports on labour market needs; the organisation of data collection and analysis; facilitating consultations with stakeholders; policy design; and the monitoring of policy implementation. The MLSP is supported in this regard by the MES that provides education-related data (Higher education, Initial VET, general education, etc.).

The role of stakeholders[vii]

The NNCA cooperates with employers, trade unions, experts, and practitioners in different economic sectors, including substantial stakeholder engagement via its 20 sectoral and 10 regional units. Within the NNCA sits a National Reference Network (NRN) involving a variety of stakeholders, including individual employers and employers’ organisations, government experts, trade unions, consultancy companies, and education providers, that have an advisory role. At local and regional levels, more than 300 representatives from business, education, government, trade unions and others participate in the activities of NRN. The NNCA also works closely with two trade unions (CITUB and CL Podkrepa), education experts, employers and university researchers in the preparation and dissemination of their labour market skills assessments. The effectiveness of the NNCA is reliant upon stakeholders’ cooperation in this regard.

Social partners at national level also sit in consultative bodies relevant to skills anticipation in, for instance, the MLSP, the NEA, the MES and the National Agency for VET (NAVET). Stakeholder involvement is also significant in regional administrations, municipalities, and local labour offices. Additionally, NGOs and other forms of citizens’ representation are invited to assess any policy initiatives and legislative changes through the Public Consultations Platform at the Council of Ministers. Notably, the NNCA was developed jointly by the social partners.

The MES sends official queries to the four main employers’ organisations and other competent authorities during the preparation of the annual admission plan to education in higher secondary schools and VET schools.

The key stakeholders involved in steering education and training provisions include the MES, the MLSP, the NAVET, higher education institutions, VET providers, the social partners, and NGOs. Their representatives sit in consultative committees which advise the MLSP.

The NAVET operates on a tripartite principle. The Governing Board and expert committees for different vocational areas involve employers, trade unions, state organisations, and VET experts. This involvement arguably helps to ensure that VET standards and the respective skills offered in education and training courses take labour market requirements into consideration.

Cedefop’s review (Cedefop, 2020a) underlined the need to strengthen stakeholder cooperation, as it is not fully institutionalised. For example, despite the Mechanism formally including sectoral interests, social partners are not represented, and trade unions or sectoral employer organisations are not involved in practice.
 

Target groups

The NNCA activities target a wide range of groups such as employers, employees, human resources managers, policymakers, and experts in the fields of education and training and labour market, university researchers, trainers, training institutions, students, and all potential users of the “MyCompetence” portal of the National Competence Assessment System. Surveys run by NEA are intended for regular use by labour market experts, guidance practitioners, recruitment agencies, training providers and employers. Meanwhile, the MLSP’s skills forecasts are targeted mainly at policymakers.

Funding and resources

As noted above, funding from the ESF has been used to develop skills anticipation mechanism in Bulgaria. The MLSP funds forecasting work, while the NEA’s regular surveys are financed from its own budget (via the MLSP). The continuation of activities to sustain skills anticipation activities has been guaranteed through the State’s financing of active labour market policy measures, the MLSP’s forecasting work, and the NEA’s regular surveys (the NEA’s activities are funded via the MLSP).

Methods and tools

Cedefop’s review (Cedefop, 2020a) identified the need for methodological improvements, including the harmonisation of currently used classifications (of economic activities, job descriptions, professions, and training courses) in official statistics and education programmes/curricula, to improve and streamline skills intelligence coming from skills anticipation methods in place.

Skills assessment

Much of the work of the NNCA focuses on developing standards of workforce competence (i.e., ‘skills profiles’ for each occupation). Additionally, a substantial element of its work relates to providing analytical information on the demand for qualified workers at the sectoral and regional levels.

Analytical information on skills demand and supply is collected through macroeconomic analysis of labour force skill needs and sectoral skills assessment analyses available on the NRN website. In this regard, the input by the NNCA provides valuable information regarding the adjustment of educational programmes at secondary and tertiary levels including VET.

There are 10 Regional Competence Assessment Centres in place. The National Competence Assessment Centre supports them in terms of the assessment methodology used. The Regional Competence Assessment Centres carry out the coordination, information exchange and implementation of competence assessment in their respective regions. The regional advisors are responsible for analysing the results and expert opinions stemming from the surveys conducted in the regions, while consulting the survey participants when competence assessment takes place at organisation level.

The ESF-funded project MyCompetence, initially led by BIA, focused on skills assessment, and aimed at mapping the skills and competence needs of the workforce. Sectoral consultative councils were formed to contribute to the selection of 20 pilot sectors for the development of a user-friendly classification of competences, in three categories: specific, core transversal, and managerial. Skill needs requirements for key occupations in several sectors can be identified in this way. The MyCompetence system mediates between stakeholders holding a coordinating and a research role in defining standards for key competences. This is based on information on employers’ skill needs. The competence standards developed by the NNCA are used by VET and higher education institutions and vocational training centres when adjusting programmes and curricula. The sectoral consultative council of MyCompetence includes representatives of the education institutions, employers, trade unions and other organisations. In 2016, the MLSP took over coordination and funding of the project and added the automotive; energy; cosmetics; construction; and mining and quarrying sectors. The system then covered 25 sectors. By the project completion at the end of 2019, there were in place competence models for 20 key job positions in the five sectors; competence models of key job positions in 20 additional sectors, five new competences assessment and self-assessment online tools; seven new online training courses on key competences; e-modules for job analysis and assessment at company level, and for evaluating learning shortages and the effect of a training course; online catalogue of competences grouped by occupations, as well as a national classification of competences (Cedefop, 2020a).

Skills forecasts

Since 2014, the MLSP has run an annual workforce demand forecast, providing analysis of the labour market disaggregated by age, gender, economic activity, groups and clusters of occupations, and level of education at both regional and local levels.

The forecasts are based on a macroeconomic model and incorporate data from employers’ surveys and from organisations such as the National Employment Agency, the National Statistical Institute, the National Social Security Institute and the National Revenue Agency. They were extended with the financial support of the ESF during 2013-15. As part of the project, MLSP Medium- and long-term forecasts (until 2032) of labour demand and supply were analysed under the ‘Increasing the Effectiveness of the Employment Policy’ project, which led, to the 2019 publication of the above-mentioned report “Medium-term and long-term forecasts for the development of the labour market in Bulgaria 2008-2032”. The macroeconomic model used for the previous forecast was updated and upgraded to include tailored modules for separate economic activities. Built on earlier forecast results, the model benefits from a consistent methodology. It produces comprehensive forecasts for labour demand and supply, employment rate, job creation and job loss by economic activities and education level (Cedefop, 2020a).

A number of forecasts (up to 2028) of future developments in the labour market by occupation and clusters of occupations have been produced (for example, long-term forecast on labour force supply and demand for the period 2014-2028; short-term forecast for 2015 based on a 2014 survey in enterprises; a summary of labour market needs 2014-2018 which was prepared by the MLSP as part of the regular activities of the Labour Market Policy Directorate; and Medium-term and long-term forecasts for the development of the labour market in Bulgaria 2008-2032).

NEA implements State employment policy at local and regional level. It carries out short-term regional forecasts and analysis through its regional/local labour offices, aiming at pinpointing insights on employers’ needs in jobs, competences, knowledge, and skills. To do so, it runs an online survey twice a year since 2018. The information collected relates also to the demand for labour in the next 12 months, as well as for the next three to five years (Cedefop, 2020a).

The VET Directorate of the MES developed at the end of 2017 a (pilot) forecast model, in cooperation with the nationally representative employers' organisations, to inform admission plans in line with labour market needs. The model is based on the expected replacement needs within the next five years in each economic sector (according to the national classifier of occupations and professions). It uses anonymised data from the national social security institute, based mainly on labour contracts, and data on learners in the VET system. The forecast model is used at the stage of evaluation of proposals presented annually by the nationally represented employers’ associations and key ministries for inclusion of additional professions in the list of professions with labour market shortages. The model has been used to update the list since 2018.

Skills foresight

Skills foresight activity is limited, related mainly to the regional foresight activities occasionally carried out by the NEA. These focus on competences required in certain occupations.

Other skills anticipation practices

The NEA regularly carries out surveys of employers to understand their skill needs so that it can better match jobseekers to available or likely to become available jobs.

An amendment in the Employment Promotion Act (EPA) in 2016 foresees that the district Employment Commission,[viii] in collaboration with the Administrative-Regional Council for Development, will run an employers’ survey twice a year on local short-term labour demand in each of the 28 regions of Bulgaria. In the beginning of 2018, the first short-term skills forecast survey among employers was launched. For the first time the survey targeted the overall population of employers (instead of only a sample). Through this survey, MLSP aims to get information about each employer’s location (district), type of enterprise (micro, small, medium-sized and large), its economic activity and the skills (defined in terms of occupations) the employer needs. However, low participation of employers in the survey questions the use of its outcomes for policy making purposes (Cedefop, 2002a).

Sectoral studies also take place, generally organised by sectoral organisations. Those representing sectors with pressing skills shortages, such as ICT, wood processing, textile and clothes, transport, and tourism, tend to be more active. Sectoral studies/surveys are often linked to the professional schools managed by sectoral chambers.

One example of industry-specific skills anticipation is the ESF-funded ‘Development of digital skills initiative”. The goal of the initiative was to improve the identification of digital skills and the development of profiles of digital skills to anticipate the impact of Industry 4.0 on the labour market, and ultimately ensure a smooth transition and adaptation of the workforce to new skills needs. In 2021, the MLSP developed a methodology for determining the status and needs for development of digital skills of the workforce. In a second step, the nationally represented employers’ and employees’ organisations launched seven projects for analysing the key professions/ occupations in each economic activity/sector that require digital skills. 

Dissemination and use

There is no overall dissemination strategy regarding the results of skills anticipation activities. The results are disseminated to target groups mainly through the involved actors websites such as ‘MyCompetence’ (i.e., NNCA’s National Competence Assessment System) or the NEA website.

The MLSP and the NEA issue forecasting reports targeted at policy makers, social partners, labour market and educational experts. Results of the employer surveys, run by the NEA, are published in monthly bulletins and annual reviews available at the NEA website.

Since 2019, the ‘Analyses and Forecasts for the Labour Market Development in Bulgaria’ web portal has been operational: the portal presents the results of the main medium- and long-term skills forecast exercises conducted by the MLSP. The portal provides information, which supports the process of planning in the Bulgarian education system. The results of the medium- and long-term skills forecasts as a basic means for skills anticipation are publicised among ministries, academia, the non-government sector, social partners, business, employees and jobseekers, students, etc. The web portal provides skills forecasting information at national, regional, sectoral, and occupational level.

Plans to improve dissemination are underway. There are also plans to provide information campaigns to encourage students towards occupations and skills needed in the labour market, while also increasing the amount of information available online.

Use of skills anticipation in policy

In 2013, the adoption of a Mechanism for including the results of forecasts of supply and demand of labour in developing and implementing government policies was an important milestone in the cooperation between government institutions in skills anticipation and matching. The MLSP was designated as the coordinating institution. The Mechanism outlines which competent institutions should use the results of the MLSP skill forecasts and in which way. Guidelines for the exchange of information, provision of annual feedback, and the involvement of institutions in the various activities of skills governance are provided. Therefore, the Mechanism has become the most important framework document for inter-institutional coordination and cooperation and the systematic use of its results for skills anticipation.

The skills intelligence produced is mainly used by:

• The NNCA, which uses the intelligence to coordinate the development of skills models[ix] and coordinate training programmes (targeting both the employed and unemployed); and
• The 20 Sector Skills Units of the NNCA, whose expert teams’ primary activities relate to the development of sector competence models.

The skills intelligence produced and the resulting analysis by the NNCA are used by education providers, mainly VET and higher education institutions and centres of professional training. The competence standards developed by the NNCA are used to adjust the educational programmes offered and their respective curricula so that graduates meet the labour market demand for specific competences. Therefore, even though the NNCA was only established in 2010, one can already identify its contribution and thus the influence of skills intelligence.

The MLSP forecasting reports are used by state institutions and other ministries for the development and implementation of policies in their respective fields. The data are also used in the preparation of the NEAP as an instrument for active labour market policy implementation.

The PES disseminates skills intelligence through experts’ meetings/workshops, executive summaries/general reports, thematic reports, as well as conferences and handbooks/guidance books for career guidance counsellors. Career guidance offered through PES is informed by skillsintelligence[x].

Target groups’ uses of skills anticipation outputs

Skills intelligence is shared with designers of employment policies relevant to workforce skills (e.g., on skills for the green transition and digital skills)[xi].

The National Competence Assessment System of the NNCA contributes towards the definition, assessment, and development of workforce competences by sector and region. Its web portal users are employees, HR managers, education experts, training providers, jobseekers and students.

Under the plans for the modernisation of the NEA service, the National Competence Assessment System will be extended and integrated into the information system of the NEA. The BIA, as an initiator and coordinator of the NNCA, is developing a module called the ‘personal profile of the job seeker’ that will create an area on the ‘My Competence’ platform applicable for the needs of the NEA’s labour offices.[xii]  

The NEA surveys are regularly used by labour market experts, guidance practitioners, recruitment agencies, training providers and employers.

In general, stakeholders’ awareness of the importance of skills anticipation and of the roles and responsibilities in skills anticipation exercises needs to be improved (Cedefop, 2020a).

Bibliography

• Bulgarian Industrial Association
• Cedefop. (2020a). Strengthening skills anticipation and matching in Bulgaria: Bridging education and the world of work through better coordination and skills intelligence. Luxembourg: Publications Office.
• Cedefop. (2020b). Developments in vocational education and training policy in 2015-19: Bulgaria. Cedefop monitoring and analysis of VET policies.
• Confederation of Independent Trade Unions in Bulgaria
• Confederation of Labour “Podkrepa”
• Council of Ministers. (2013). Mechanism for including the results of forecasts of supply and demand of labour in developing and implementing government policies.
• EEPO. (2015). Skills governance in the EU Member States. Developed by the European Employment Policy Observatory for the European Commission. Brussels: European Commission. 
• European Commission. (2022). Future skills, career guidance and lifelong learning in PES. Thematic paper. Brussels. Author: Lukasz Sienkiewicz.
• Ministry of Education and Science (MES)
• Ministry of Labour and Social Policy (MLSP)
• __. (2019). Medium-term and long-term forecasts for the development of the labour market in Bulgaria. Factors of labour demand, employment trends, regional and educational imbalances (2008–2032).
• National Agency for VET
• National Competence Assessment System (previously Workforce Competence Assessment System)
• National Employment Agency
• __. (2022). Yearly Bulletin.
• NNCA. (2014). Labour Force Competence assessment – state of the art, challenges, analytical systems and tools. Sofia.
• OECD. (2016). Getting Skills Right. Assessing and Anticipating Changing Skill Needs. Paris: OECD Publishing.
• OECD (2023). OECD Skills Strategy Bulgaria: Assessment and Recommendations, OECD Skills Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/c2eb2f34-en.

Endnotes