Skills anticipation in Greece (2023 Update)

Summary

Overview of the Greek approach

Skills anticipation activities such as skills assessments, skills foresight analysis and ad hoc employer surveys are undertaken in the country. Policy actions have been concerned with setting up and improving the operation of a permanent process to provide a diagnosis of labour market needs. The Mechanism for the Identification of Labour Market Needs (hereafter the Mechanism) was established in May 2016 under the supervision of the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs and the scientific guidance of the National Institute of Labour and Human Resources (NILHR). The Mechanism is the most prominent skills anticipation activity undertaken in the country. The aim of the Mechanism is to provide reliable information on the supply of, and demand for, labour by occupation and skill level at national, regional and sectoral levels to the organisations involved in the development of labour market policies and other interested parties.

The social partners are engaged in a variety of skills anticipation exercises to fulfil the information needs of their organisations or their members. Understanding which skills are in highest demand in the labour market assists social partners adjust the vocational education and training (VET) courses they offer.

Improvements in the dissemination of labour market skills intelligence have taken place. In addition, employers and trade unions are improving online access to the skills information they generate, which informs jobseekers, employers and VET providers.

Description

Greece undertakes skills anticipation through:

• skills assessments, identifying current skills gaps through the analysis of quantitative and qualitative data and trends by expert panels;
• skills foresights analysis, identifying future occupations and the skills they will require;
• ad hoc surveys of employers aimed at gathering information from companies about their skill needs.

In May 2016, the Mechanism was established under the supervision of the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs and the scientific guidance of the National Institute of Labour and Human Resources (NILHR). The aim of the Mechanism is to provide reliable data for the design of policies related to: (a) employment; (b) vocational education and training; and (c) human resource development in general. The NILHR has developed the methodology for the Mechanism, which is based on multiple sources of data to provide an assessment of skill needs. Its methodological framework (data collection and processing, procedures for mapping professional qualifications) was refined in 2017. The Mechanism has published up to today three annual reports (in 2018, 2019 and 2020) discussing employment trajectories across sectors and occupations at the national and regional level. EIEAD has also been publishing reports every six months. The relevant outputs inform the development of new occupational profiles and curricula. The selection of new apprenticeship specialties implemented in the school year 2017/18 were informed by these reports (Cedefop, 2020b).

Skills anticipation was further contextualised through the new National Skills Strategy, which will be run by the Greek Public Employment Service (PES, former Manpower Employment Organisation or OAED). The Strategy includes actions on skills anticipation as a separate pillar.

There are several other initiatives on skills anticipation, including studies on skills demand and employment forecasts by occupation and sector, carried out by the social partners, various national agencies, educational institutions, and consultancy firms. Most of these initiatives are however rather fragmented. The researchers participating in the Mechanism publish also special reports discussing various subjects related to employment. One of these special reports developed a short-term analysis of future employment trends in Greece for the period 2018-2022 (Roupakias, 2018). Additionally, the Institute of Labour of GSEE (General Confederation of Labour) delivers diagnosis, monitoring and analysis of developments and medium-term changes in skills in jobs/specialities. Partnerships between public and private entities for skills anticipation also take place.

Overall, the activities described above are intended for various users including policymakers, career counsellors, young people, jobseekers, and employers.

In 2017-19, Cedefop was invited by the Greek government to provide technical advice towards the improvement of the country’s skills governance. The aim was to improve the management and coordination of skills anticipation efforts, making existing skills anticipation initiatives more useful for policy, and better linking skills intelligence to education and training (Cedefop, 2020a).

Aims

The overarching aim of skills anticipation in Greece is to contribute to an improved matching of the demand for, and supply of skills (Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, 2022). The system of vocational education and training has suffered from weaknesses in relation to its low attractiveness to learners and employers and its perceived low responsiveness to labour market needs. The economic crisis had accentuated these weaknesses. To remedy this situation, steps have been taken to better anticipate the future demand for skills linked to improved dissemination of the results within the vocational education and training system. In this context, the main target of the Mechanism is to produce reliable results at regular intervals. The other skills anticipation exercises undertaken are also aimed at improving the supply of skills to better match demand.

Legal framework

The mandatory development of processes to identify skills needs has been provided by Law 4336/2015 (Greek Parliament, 2015) The legal framework for a skill needs forecasting system was established in 2016 (Law No 4368/2016). EIEAD (the National Institute for Labour and Human Capital) has the mandate to coordinate the development of the mechanism of labour market diagnosis. A coordination committee was put in place, consisting of representatives from the ministries of labour, education, and economy, EOPPEP, regions, the Greek PES and social partners. Later, Law 4826/2021 established a team of experts (formally “Employment, Social Security, Welfare and Social Affairs Expert Unit”) in which the operation of the Mechanism was assigned by Law 4921/2022 (Greek Parliament, 2022). Article 26 in this same Law is the one that formally establishes Greece’s new National Skills Strategy.

In addition, the legal and institutional framework to improve links between education and the labour market was reinforced with the introduction of the National Committee for VET and the change of ESYP into ESEKAAD; this allows better focus on the mismatch between the knowledge, skills and competences relevant to the labour market and those offered by the education and training system (Cedefop, 2020b). For example, establishing centres of vocational education (ΚΕE) offering two-year programmes in universities for EPAL graduates, was a proposal of ESEKAAD that was adopted by the Ministry of Education.

Governance

Skills anticipation is the responsibility of the following ministries:

• The Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs;
• The Ministry of Education and Religious Affairs;
• The Ministry of Finance;
• The Ministry of Development and Investments; and
• The Ministry of Tourism.

The Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs is responsible for the Mechanism, the most prominent skills anticipation activity undertaken currently in the country. The NILHR, operating under the Ministry of Labour is responsible for the methodology used in the Mechanism.

The governance of the Mechanism, falls under: (a) the NCC, including the main ministries (Ministry of Labour; Ministry of Education; Ministry of Economy, Development and Tourism–from now on Ministry of Economy), the NILHR, the EOPPEP, the ENPE, the OAED, and the key social partners (the Hellenic Confederation of Professionals, Craftsmen & Merchants (GSEVEE), the General Confederation of Greek Workers (GSEE), SEV, the Hellenic Confederation of Commerce and Entrepreneurship (ESEE), the Association of Greek Tourism Enterprises (SETE)); (b) the operational network of organisations involved in carrying out the tasks foreseen under the mechanism’s mandate, such as feeding information into the mechanism’s information repository, carrying out and analysing surveys and studies, and using the outputs for the purposes of policy-making; (c) the Scientific Committee, instituted in October 2016, with main responsibility for ensuring methodological consistency and scrutiny of project outputs (Cedefop, 2020a).

Crucial to the overall operation of the Mechanism is the Operational Network of Bodies and Organisations, coordinated by the NILHR, which has responsibility for implementation of the actions necessary for collecting labour market needs data. The Ministry of Labour, NILHR, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Economy, ELSTAT, Greek PES (former OAED), EOPPEP, regional authorities, the social partners signing the General collective labour agreement (GSEE, GSEVEE, ESEE, SEV, SETE), and other bodies whose activities may contribute to the operation of the mechanism, in particular research centres and universities comprise the network (Cedefop, 2020a).

The Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs coordinates the function of the Mechanism and defines its inputs and outputs according to the decisions of the Coordination Committee.

The role of stakeholders

The key stakeholders are the three government ministries (see section on “Governance”), the National Statistics Agency, the Manpower Organisation (PES), local and regional authorities, research centres, and the social partners (employers’ and employees’ associations). Other stakeholders include career and professional guidance providers.

The NILHR is the public body most involved in coordinating skills anticipation policy. It plays a coordination role in implementing EU programmes closely related to employment. Finally, stakeholders sit on the Coordination and Scientific Committees and the Operational Network of the Mechanism. The dominant stakeholder is the NILHR and this is seen through its extensive input to government policy on skills anticipation and its scientific role in the design and the coordination of the methodology of the Mechanism. Regarding social partners, they have participated in the development and updates of the Mechanism. Additionally, social partners with IME GSEVEE acting as the coordinator are responsible for the nationwide employers' survey (Cedefop).

Some social partners are involved or run skills anticipation exercises, often to address sector-specific labour market needs at local and regional levels. They also use information stemming from skills anticipation exercises in the various training programmes and career guidance services they provide. For example, the General Confederation of Greek Workers (GSEE), the Hellenic Confederation of Professionals, Craftsmen and Merchants and the Civil Servants’ Confederation all run training and re-training programmes aimed at unemployed people and private sector employees, targeting sectors such as, tourism, teaching, informatics, etc. Skills assessment studies are also conducted by local and regional authorities. See for example the studies conducted by the authorities in the Regions of Epirus in 2019 and South Aegean in 2016.

Target groups

The intended target groups of skills anticipation exercises and, most importantly, of the Mechanism include policymakers in the various ministries and government agencies, the PES, local and regional authorities, the social partners, education and training providers, and career and vocational guidance providers.

Funding and resources

Most skills anticipation programmes are financed by the government, mainly through the three governing ministries (see section on “Governance”). Funding in several cases is provided through European Structural Funds. The establishment of the Mechanism of Forecasting the Needs of Enterprises in Occupations and Skills was co-financed both by the ESF and the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises (SEV). Additional funds are anticipated to be used to develop innovative tools for diagnosing labour market needs from the Next Generation EU fund through the Greek National Recovery and Resilience Plan “Greece 2.0”. These actions are part of Pillar 3.2. “Education, vocational education, training, and skills” of the “Greece 2.0” programme.

Funding also derives from the non-government sector. The main actors in this regard are social partners including the General Confederation of Labour, the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises, and the General Confederation of Greek Small Businesses and Trades that produce studies on skills demand.

Methods and tools

Skills assessment

Skills assessment in Greece takes various forms. The NILHR, and its predecessor bodies prior to 2011 (Vocational Training SA and the Employment Observatory Research-Informatics SA), have carried out most of the skills assessments at the national and regional levels. It is worth, however, mentioning that the most important skills audit to have taken place resulted from Greece’s participation in PIAAC Round 2.

A recent addition to skills assessment in the country is the establishment of national skills diagnostic exams (known as the “Greek PISA”), having the PISA diagnostic studies as a model. A first such assessment took place in 2022 and involved more than 11,000 students in the sixth and ninth grade. A dedicated report was published with the results, while the next exam round is scheduled for 2023.

The NILHR has the scientific responsibility of the skills anticipation process and coordinates the methodological approach utilised in the Mechanism. The Mechanism provides data at the four-digit occupation level for the whole country. It provides an interactive database allowing the user to see the employment prospects and other job characteristics (e.g. wages, share of higher education graduates etc.) associated with each occupation. In addition, there are specific analyses available in the database relating to changes at the sectoral and regional levels, as well as the outcomes related to qualifications and skills. The Mechanism uses data on skills supply and demand drawn from several sources.

The social partners are also engaged in skills assessment. The findings of the surveys or other activities they run are often published in skills outlook reports.

Recently, in an effort to support the development of the Mechanism there have been several qualitative studies conducted by the social partners in specific professions / occupations, as well as regional studies. Qualitative research in specific professions and occupations by social partners and by regions are available on NILHR website. Other stakeholders conducting such research include the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises, which engages in identifying current and future skills needs for specific occupations and sectors. See for example the 2022 report on the Federation’s Skills4Jobs initiative, and a report on emerging skill needs for sales professionals.

A new VET graduate tracking study was carried out in 2019-21 by the National Organisation for Certification of Qualifications and Vocational Guidance (EOPPEP) in cooperation with the National Institute for Labour and Human Resource (EIEAD). The project focuses on graduates of 2.5-year post-secondary VET programmes (IEK). Using quality indicators such as the placement rate of VET graduates and the utilisation of acquired skills in the workplace, the research analyses the position of IEK graduates within the labour market. It also measures the degree of satisfaction of:

• graduates, about the curriculum and the specialisation they have completed;
• employers, about graduates’ knowledge, skills and competences.

Following the successful pilot phase of the VET graduate tracking mechanism, EOPPEP plans to develop a broader and more systematic tracking mechanism in the near future. 

Skills forecasts

The forecasting and labour market intelligence infrastructure in Greece is in development and is therefore one of the countries receiving support from the ESF to improve its forecasting capabilities. Currently, CEDEFOP’s European skills forecasting model is used in the country.

Prior to the economic crisis, econometric models were used to produce a forecast of labour supply (e.g. population of working age, labour and non-labour force by gender, level of education, etc.) and demand (e.g. employment by gender, level of education, and sector of work). Their usage, however, declined as the crisis took hold and greater emphasis was placed on implementing EU programmes related to employment and vocational education and training.

Skills foresight

Skills foresight studies have been undertaken by various stakeholders (the government, education institutions, and the social partners) in response to the economic crisis. For instance, the National Organisation of Skills Certification and Vocational Guidance has conducted research on emerging business areas and the new skills these will give rise to, while similar studies on employment trends have been carried out by the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises, the Labour Institute of the General Confederation of Greek Workers, the University of Piraeus, and private consultancies such as McKinsey & Co.

Since 2017, the Institute of Small Enterprises of GSEVEE (IME GSEVEE) established a Sectoral and occupational foresight mechanism (Foresight Lab). The Lab monitors changes in professions, is essentially a system for investigating, analysing, understanding and recording impending changes in twenty professions.  Additionally, in the framework of the Mechanism for Labour Market Diagnosis IME GSEVEE, acting as coordinator of the social partners, delivers a skills foresight study and will coordinate the activities of the "Social Dialogue Lab".

The 2020 annual report of the Mechanism of labour market diagnosis was published by EIEAD in a concise and easy-to-use format, utilising advanced imaging software. The report referred to the years 2011-19 and analysed national and local developments in employment and unemployment, the demand for jobs by profession, by industry and by skill level. The data of the report were derived from the labour force survey of the Greek statistics agency (ELSTAT), the information system (for monitoring the labour market) ERGANI, the register for unemployment of the Greek Public Employment Service (DYPA - former OAED) and the European classification system of skills, abilities, qualifications and professions ESCO.

In 2021, the sixth EIEAD annual report, ’Work and employment in Greece’ covered COVID-19 impact on the economy, labour market and society and provided data on topics like the digital economy and vocational education and training.

Skills anticipation became a fundamental component of Greece's new National Skills Strategy, managed by DYPA. Formalised in mid-2022, the Strategy's future actions involve skills anticipation studies to identify dynamic sectors and occupations with labour demand at national, local, and regional levels. It also includes research on emerging job profiles within the Greek economy, collaborating with relevant companies to assess specific skill and competency needs. Furthermore, the Strategy emphasises the need for dedicated skills anticipation to address employment and skill requirements arising from climate change adaptation, the transition to a circular economy, and the decarbonisation of the nation's energy production.

Other skills anticipation practices

DYPA analyses future skill needs. It uses descriptive statistics, quantitative forecasting outputs, skills and jobs surveys. Skills intelligence is being analysed in collaboration with EIEAD (European Commission, 2022). In the context of skills anticipation research, DYPA collaborates with private stakeholders. For example, a three-year memorandum of collaboration was signed in 2022 with the Hellenic-American Trade Chamber for promoting the better matching between labour demand and supply in Greece. The memorandum’s actions include skills anticipation studies for specific professional and technical skills (including those emerging in the post-Covid era).

In addition to the types of activity listed above, there have been ad hoc surveys to employers and employees, enquiring about skill needs and gaps as part of the qualitative inputs for the Mechanism. More precisely, in an effort to support the development of the Mechanism, the following were undertaken: the General Survey of Employers by the General Confederation of Greek Small Businesses and Trades (December 2015); and the General Survey of Workers by the General Confederation of Labour (December 2015). In 2022, a call for tenders for conducting a new General Survey of Employers was issued by the General Confederation of Greek Small Businesses and Trades. The new survey will emphasise in vertical, horizontal and social skill needs. In 2021, the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises published a survey on dynamic medium-skilled job profiles. The survey analysed data from 2013-2019 and identified sectors and occupations in the Greek economy with the largest employment increases.

Dissemination and use

Skills anticipation outputs derived from the Mechanism are provided through a standard procedure. The annual report of the NILHR is submitted to the National Employment Committee, which brings together the General Secretaries of the main ministries, the representatives of regional authorities, and the social partners. The annual report is uploaded on the website of the Ministry of Labour and the NILHR, and is available to companies, training providers, and the public. Employers and trade unions have also been improving online access to the skills information they generate, informing jobseekers, employers and VET providers.

DYPA includes skills intelligence analysis in general reports addressed to the public. Guidance services and information offered to external stakeholders (e.g. VET providers, other educational institutions) is enriched with skills intelligence. Upskilling and reskilling programmes targeting future skill requirements are also adjusted to skills intelligence findings.

Use of skills anticipation in policy

The two principal government departments which utilise skills forecasting findings in policymaking are the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs and the Ministry of Education and Religious Affairs. The former provides continuing vocational training and initial vocational training while the latter supervises initial vocational education, with both ministries having an interest in the results from the Mechanism. Since the start of the economic crisis, employment and education policymakers’ engagement with the findings and recommendations from the various anticipation studies has been limited. A possible reason for this is the fact that dealing with high unemployment and the diminishing number of vacancies has taken priority over the discussion of skills gaps.

As regards future actions, DYPA intends to utilise the results of the skills anticipation surveys conducted under its memorandum with the Hellenic-American Trade Chamber as an input to the ongoing reforms in the programmes of the 50 country’s Apprenticeship Vocational Schools (EPAS) and 30 Vocational Training Institutes (IEK). These reforms include skills upgrading through training program updating and are being implemented with resources from the Recovery and Resilience Fund.

Target groups’ uses of skills anticipation outputs

The utilisation of skills anticipation outputs is closely linked with the governance of the vocational education and training system. The outputs of the Mechanism primarily concern the institutions involved in the development of human resources policies. The ultimate target groups for the skills anticipation outputs include young people (choosing courses to study or entering the labour market from school), jobseekers, and employers. Labour market intermediaries, under the coordination of the National Organisation of Skills Certification and Vocational Guidance, use the outputs of skills anticipation to advise the target groups (such as young people) on skills and career matters.

Bibliography

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