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Skills anticipation in Croatia (2023 Update)
Summary
Overview of the Croatian approach
Skills anticipation is in development in Croatia. Overall, there is a consensus between the various authorities on the direction of policy, but there is currently no systematic and coordinated skills anticipation process. The impact of various anticipation exercises has been limited; for example, there has been a lack of influence of the activities on students and educational institutions. In this respect there is a recognised need to improve overall coordination of the various organisations engaged in the process of skills anticipation. It should be noted in this regard that the analyses of current and projected skill needs are still under-developed, meaning that neither the education system nor future students are adequately informed.
Skills anticipation exercises largely fall under the remit of the public employment service (Hrvatski zavod za zaposljavanje, HZZ, hereafter PES). The PES has developed a process for assessing which occupations are and will be in surplus and which in shortage. This information mainly affects the recommendations of the PES regarding education and training enrolment quotas in secondary and tertiary education. The assessment of surplus and shortage occupations also aims to guide education and training providers on future provision of secondary and tertiary education programmes and formal adult education programmes. The National Council for the Development of Human Potential (Nacionalnog vijeća za razvoj ljudskih potencijala) also assesses what is needed to ensure that skills supply meets demand. However, the Council’s recommendations (based on skills anticipation activities) are not binding for education and training providers.
The introduction of the Croatian Qualifications Framework (Hrvatski kvalifikacijski okvir, HKO) has provided a framework for analysis of the supply of, and demand for, skills. In 2019, with the implementation of the Croatian Qualifications Framework, a range of activities anticipating training needs are being undertaken, including skills assessments, quantitative skills forecasts, qualitative studies and employer/employee surveys. Whilst these skills anticipation activities are in early development, the aim is to develop occupational standards, produce 15 new sector profiles and 200 new occupational standards for vocational occupations and adult education. As of March 2021, the CROQF register of occupational standards had a total of 20 occupational standards at NQF level 4.1 (EQF level 4; 3-year programs in IVET) and 53 occupational standards at NQF level 4.2 (EQF level 4; 4-year programs in IVET). The standards are published on the CROQF register website, while the remaining standards are at different stages of being included in the CROQF register. In February 2021, amendments to the Croatian Qualifications Framework Act were adopted. In September 2021, the Ordinance on the CROQF Register was also adopted, leading to changes in the procedure for evaluating occupational standards. The standards are no longer evaluated by sectoral councils, but by the Commission for Professional Evaluation of Requirements for Registration of Occupational Standards and Competence Sets, appointed by the Minister of Labour. Following the adoption of the Ordinance, the Minister appointed the Commission, and a public call for sectoral experts to work in the Commission was published.
As of February 2022, there were 200 registered occupational standards with 1,778 corresponding sets of competencies, while 26 occupational standards were returned for processing after expert evaluation, and 80 occupational standards were still in the expert evaluation stage.[i]
Description
Overall responsibility for skills anticipation rests with the Ministry of Labour and Pension System, Family and Social Policy (Ministarstvo rada i mirovinskog sustava,obitelji I socijalne politike MROSP), which has jurisdiction over the public employment service (PES). In practice, the PES is the principal agency involved in skills anticipation. It undertakes assessments of current and future skill needs with a view to informing the education system (secondary and tertiary level) about future provision of programmes. In addition to the activities of the PES, sectoral assessments are also undertaken and there has been an initial foray into formal skills forecasting.
The Croatian Qualifications Framework HKO (Hrvatski Kvalifikacijski Okvir), introduced in 2013, provides a structure for skills anticipation activity. Important in the development of the HKO is the role of sector councils that have a responsibility for advising on changes in qualifications due to changes in occupational standards or other sectoral developments. These councils involve various stakeholders including the social partners and sectoral experts. The National Council for the Development of Human Potential also has an important role in relation to the HKO in making recommendations about how the skills supply system should respond to changing patterns of skills demand. The HKO falls under the domain of the Ministry of Science and Education (Ministarstvo znanosti i obrazovanja, MZOS).
The main aim of skills anticipation is to inform policymakers and education and training providers. It is being further developed to also include careers guidance professionals and, increasingly, inform the decisions of jobseekers and prospective students.
Aims
The primary aim of skills anticipation in Croatia is to improve the skills intelligence available about the demand for, and supply of, skills. In turn, this skills intelligence aims to ensure that those responsible for the provision of education and training are better informed. There is scope for skills anticipation activity to increase the range of its target user groups, but for the moment it is very much orientated towards influencing the decisions of those responsible for the supply of education and skills.
As noted above, the HKO is considered a critically important first step in providing a structure for conducting skills anticipation exercises.
Legal framework
There are three key regulations relating to the development of skills anticipation activity in Croatia.
The Regulation on Monitoring, Analysis and Forecasting of the Labour Market Needs for Particular Occupations (Official Gazette No. 93/2010) was introduced in the wake of the financial crisis to improve the match between the supply of, and demand for, skills. It requires the PES to analyse and forecast current and future labour market skill needs on an annual basis and make recommendations for educational enrolment policy. Once a year, the PES sends its recommendations to educational institutions, local and regional administrations, sector councils and the Ministry of Science and Education (MZOS).
The Vocational Education and Training Act (Official Gazette No. 30/2009) established the first sector councils, which comprised representatives of social partners and education and training providers, plus experts in the skills needs of different sectors. In addition, 25 sector councils were introduced by the 2013 Croatian Qualifications Framework Act.[ii] The Amendments to the VET Act adopted in March 2018 provided a framework for the VET curricula to be further developed including the introduction of the National Curriculum for VET, sectoral curricula and VET school curricula. It also removed multipartite sector skills councils introduced in 2013. A network of regional competence centres was also established.
In addition, there are two strategy documents that have been important in shaping the developing skills anticipation activity:
- The Strategy on Development of the Vocational Education System in the Republic of Croatia 2008–2013 established, among other things, a methodology for labour market research on skills demand and supply and made recommendations regarding the collection and analysis of labour market data. The new strategy for vocational education and training (VET) which covers the period 2016–2020 was adopted in late 2016.[iii]
- The National Strategy for Lifelong Professional Guidance and Career Development in the Republic of Croatia 2014–2020 emphasises availability of high-quality information on career opportunities and provision of professional guidance for individuals and/or groups of jobseekers.
Governance
The Ministry of Labour and Pension System, Family and Social Policy (Ministarstvo rada i mirovinskog sustava,obitelji I socijalne politike MROSP), MROSPhas the overall responsibility for skills anticipation on the government side. Within the MROSP, the PES has operational responsibility for skills anticipation through its regional and local offices. The PES analyses future skill needs[iv].
The development of the HKO rests with the National Council for Development of Human Potential, which monitors and validates the impact of the HKO. It makes recommendations based on the work of sector councils as to how to better connect the educational offer to labour market needs. Ultimate responsibility for the HKO rests with the MZOS.
The role of stakeholders
The PES is the main provider of skills anticipation information plus guidance and counselling to jobseekers. Social partners are represented on the managing board of the PES. Aside from the MROSP, PES and MZOS, the other key authorities that will have a role in skills anticipation as the process develops are:
- The Agency for Vocational Education and Training and Adult Education (Agencija za strukovno obrazovanje i obrazovanje odraslih), which has responsibility for developing qualifications based on competences and learning outcomes, and the continuous alignment of education with labour market needs.
- The Agency for Science and Higher Education (Agencija za zanost I visoko abrazovanje), which has a role in implementing the HKO in higher education.
- The sector councils (Sektorska vijeća), which advise the HKO on changes to qualifications based on changes observed in occupational standards or other developments at the sectoral level.
Employers’ associations, trade unions, education and training providers, and experts will be represented in the skills anticipation process by their participation in the sector councils.
Social partners are also represented on the sector councils and in the National Council for the Development of Human Potential, along with training providers and assorted experts.
Target groups
The main users of the outputs of the skills anticipation process are policymakers (across several ministries and agencies) and educational institutions (VET and higher education). The PES, at both national and local level, is also a target group for the use of labour market intelligence. Ultimately the aim is to expand the target groups to include students and jobseekers via labour market intermediaries.
Funding and resources
Funding for skills anticipation is provided by the MROSP to the PES. Despite regulation obliging the PES to further develop skills anticipation activity (Official Gazette No. 93/2010), its budget was not increased to accommodate this new responsibility.
The Ministry of Science and Education has allocated funds totalling EUR 529.4 million to promote priority axis 3, Education and Lifelong Learning, within the Operational Program "Effective Human Resources" 2014 - 2020 (adopted on December 18, 2014). The objective of this initiative is to improve the quality of the education system and match it with the needs of the labour market. The allocated funds comprise EUR 450 million from the EU and EUR 79.4 million from the national budget.
Methods and tools
Skills assessment
As noted above, regulation requires the PES to engage in skills anticipation. To this end the PES has developed a methodology for assessing the current demand for and supply of skills, together with a view about how these are likely to develop in the future. Since 2011, the PES has run skills assessment exercises, based chiefly on two data sources:
- The register of unemployed people and
- A survey of employers.
Skills assessment concerns the time necessary for people of different levels and fields of study to make the transition from unemployment to employment. This provides an initial ranking of courses that are associated with a more or less successful transition into employment. The ranking is further modified by PES to make sure that the results correspond with their day-to-day experience. A view is also taken on future developments (based on a linear extrapolation of trends). Results from the PES employer survey are then used to provide a demand-side perspective, for example by integrating the frequency with which employers report a shortage of workers in a particular occupation into the ranking process. Because the rankings are conducted at regional and local levels, analysts from regional PES offices also consider regional and local development plans and their projected workforce implications. The final rankings feed into recommendations[v] for enrolment policy for various VET and higher education courses. The analyses and recommendations are developed annually.
Shortcomings can be identified in the aforementioned methodology. For example, the unemployment register does not cover all graduates because registration is non-compulsory. Additionally, the methodology does not consider all causes of differential levels of employability – for example, the differences in filling vacancies between rural and urban areas tend to be unrelated to enrolment levels, especially in higher education.
In January 2019, the Ministry of Labour, Pension System, Family and Social Policy (Labour Market and Employment Administration) launched the "Implementation of the Croatian Qualifications Framework (HKO) and Development of Tools for Linking Education and the Labour Market" project in partnership with the Croatian Chamber of Commerce, the Croatian Chamber of Crafts, the Croatian Employers' Association, and the HR Center. The project, which aims to create 200 registered occupational standards, involves employers for the first time in co-creating occupational standards. Project activities are planned to continue until 2023, spanning four years.
A range of activities anticipating training needs are being undertaken as part of the project, including skills assessments, quantitative skills forecasts, qualitative studies and employer/employee surveys. The project, co-funded by the European Social Fund, is overseen by the Ministry of Labour and Pension System, Family and Social Policy. Its aim was to update the methodological framework and tools for the development of occupational standards and produce 15 new sector profiles and 200 new occupational standards for vocational occupations and adult education. The development of new occupational standards is expected to foster the development of qualifications aligned to labour market needs.
The Ministry of Science and Education designated the Agency for VET and Adult Education (ASOO) as the national body responsible for carrying out the survey of the Programme for the international assessment of adult competencies (PIAAC) in the period from 2018-23 in Croatia. The survey results would serve as a valuable tool for evidence-based policymaking and comparison of adult skills in the international perspective. The results would also be used to advance the quality of adult education in Croatia and to promote lifelong learning. The main survey took place in 2022.[vi]
Skills forecasts
In 2010, the Government adopted the Regulation on monitoring, analysis and forecasting of labour market needs for particular occupations. Based on this Regulation, the Croatian Employment Service (CES) became responsible for annual analysis and forecasting of labour market needs and development of recommendations for enrolment policy. The main users of these forecasts were policy makers, educational providers and the Croatian Employment Service. The Ministry of Science and Education used CES recommendations to decide on enrolment quotas for secondary education programmes, as well as for determining the numbers of scholarships in particular educational programmes.
Since its establishment in 2005 and until 2012, the Agency for Vocational Education and Training and Adult Education (ASOO) developed sector profiles for all 13 VET sectors[vii] and the first methodologies of skills forecast, introduced concepts of occupational/qualification standards, as well as established and run 13 VET sectoral committees. In April 2016, the Institute of Economics published an experimental forecast on future labour market developments and skill needs for the period 2015–2020 with quantitative forecasts for 25 sectors. It was linked to the 2016 study “Projekcije o budućim kretanjima na tržištu rada / (Projections on future trends on the labour market).
In 2016, the Ministry of Education commissioned the study Projections on the future labour market trends from the Institute of Economics Zagreb (EIZ). The forecast included explores developments up to 2020. The study introduced a new methodology for forecasting future labour market trends. The main results include annual employment forecasts, segregated by 83 economic activities according to the national classification of economic activities (NKD 2007). In addition, the study offers an analysis of the impact on employment at occupation level of the projected trends for each economic activity and by sector of the Croatian qualifications framework (Hrvatski kvalifikacijski okvir, HKO). The aim of the study was to produce forecasts on the future labour market trends that would inform the activities of HKO sector councils and other stakeholders in the implementation of HKO. It primarily supports the development of new occupational standards that are to be proposed for inclusion in the HKO registry.
In early 2019, the Ministry of Labour launched a major ESF-funded project, “Implementation of the Croatian qualifications framework and the development of instruments for linking education to the labour market”. It comprises several initiatives that contribute to the development of a framework for assessing and forecasting labour market needs, including:
- update of the methodology for the development of sector profiles
- development of 15 new sector profiles
- update of 10 sector profiles from 2015-2016
- further upgrade of HKO portal (including skills matching features)
- implementation of ESCO in the national classification of occupations (NKZ).
While the aim is to provide an outlook on the demand for skills/qualifications (using the HKO), the only skills forecast currently available on Croatia is the one produced as part of Cedefop’s pan-European skill projections.
In 2016, the Ministry of Labour launched an initiative with the Institute of Economics to map young people not in employment, education, or training (NEETs). The mapping system cross-references information on student enrolment in secondary and higher education with databases of the Croatian Pension Insurance Institute and the Croatian Employment Service to determine if they were employed or active jobseekers upon graduation or early leaving. The data gathered from this initiative identifies NEET sub-groups and provides recommendations to improve the transition to work or education and training. The quality of the data was improved in 2019 thanks to modifications to the data-sharing agreement. In 2021, the data on NEET pupils and students was analysed.[viii]
In 2018, the Ministry of Labour and Pension System announced the establishment of a monitoring system for NEETs, which included the analysis of the situation and recommendations for further activities. The study aimed to identify and document the NEET population in Croatia based on various administrative data sources and provide answers to relevant questions for designing appropriate economic policy measures to reintegrate the NEET population into education or the workforce. The analysis focused on the quality of existing data sources and possibilities for their future improvement.
Skills foresight
There is currently no skills foresight activity in Croatia.
In June 2021, the Ministry of Labour in cooperation with the Algebra University College, the SELECTIO group, and an expert team consisting of 27 scientists, professors, managers, experts from various industries, and founders of technology companies, presented the first interactive map of future jobs and skills in Croatia. The map provides guidance on conducting skills anticipation; the map presents a list of skills for future occupations in the top 10 industries, which is a first in Croatia.
Other skills anticipation practices
The aforementioned PES survey of employers enquires about occupational skill requirements. According to the PES, the survey results are used in targeting PES active labour market policy programmes and are one of the inputs into the PES yearly enrolment policy recommendations. The purpose of the survey is to identify which adjustments can be made to better match skills supply to demand. The survey is conducted in the first quarter of every year and addresses a relatively high number of employers (8,969 employers were interviewed in 2015, accounting for 530,000 employees or 38 per cent of those employed at the time). It is the largest and most representative survey of employers in Croatia. It is limited to employers with five or more employees (80 per cent of respondents are small employers, 16 per cent medium-sized ones and 14 per cent large ones). The questionnaire is sent to employers by mail, but it is also possible to respond online through the PES web page. Although the results of the survey are available online, they are used almost exclusively by policymakers.
The National Centre for External Evaluation of Education gathers information on all IVET graduates through graduate tracking, which is used to approve new programmes, student enrolments, and staff recruitment. In 2018, a pilot tracking programme was launched by the Agency for VET and Adult Education (AVETAE) in three Croatian VET schools with different specialisations in different locations. A final report on the implemented 2018/19 graduate tracking survey was drafted for each participating VET provider, and the results were presented to other VET providers in 2019. Based on the pilot, a draft handbook on graduate tracking surveys for VET providers was produced in 2019.
In the same year, ASOO engaged in a peer-learning activity on VET graduate tracking with EQAVET NRPs from Greece, Slovenia, and Finland. The second round of graduate surveys was started with the participation of three providers who took part in the pilot survey in 2018-19 and four new VET providers. The aim was to review and fine-tune the tracking instrument and encourage more VET providers to use it. The second round of pilot graduate tracking surveys was completed at the end of 2020, having involved seven VET providers in the country.
Dissemination and use
Use of skills anticipation in policy
It can be argued that there is no structured skills anticipation and matching system in Croatia; therefore, accurately assessing the extent and the way the relevant outputs affect policy can be challenging.
Both the Strategy on Development of the Vocational Education System in the Republic of Croatia 2016–2020 and the National Strategy for Lifelong Professional Guidance and Career Development in the Republic of Croatia 2014–2020 concentrate on conducting more research and providing more information on skills demand in the labour market. Additionally, regulation gives the PES a central role in identifying the over- and under-supply of skills.
The results of skills anticipation exercises are publicised, for example in newspapers.
The Ministry of Education developed the Croatian Qualifications Framework (CROQF) web portal (HKO portal) as the central portal with labour market and education indicators. The portal integrates data on employment, unemployment, enrolment in secondary and higher education programmes, key economic activities and corresponding employment rates, and distribution of different occupations in sectors in relation to economic activities. For example, the data on employment includes indicators such as the share of sector in total workforce, the number of occupations per sector and the distribution of workforce by age, sex and occupation. The portal offers insight into current labour market trends, rather than offering forecasts for the future. The portal links data on unemployment from the Croatian Employment Service, data on employment from the Croatian Pension Insurance Institute, enrolment in secondary and higher education programmes from the Ministry of Science and Education and the relevant statistical indicators from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics.
The introduction of the HKO is considered to improve the link between the education system and the labour market, as it will offer greater transparency (for example, on skills and qualifications required for occupations in excess demand). The Ministry of Education sets up and coordinates sector councils and develops guidelines and background analyses for the development and the implementation of the HKO. Sector councils evaluate proposals for including occupational and qualification standards in the HKO registry, and equally:
- analyse existing and required competences by sector
- give recommendations to the National Council for Development of Human Potential about admission policies, admission quota and financing of qualifications from public sources, by qualification and by county
- give recommendations to the ministry of education about changes in qualifications standards based on changes identified in occupational standards
- give recommendations to the Ministry of Labour for changes in the National Classification of Occupations (NKZ).
Target groups’ uses of skills anticipation outputs
The main users of skills anticipation outputs are policymakers, and to a lesser extent educational institutions and PES employees. The PES uses these outputs to educate advisers and inform the Lifelong Career Guidance Centre (CISOK). The CISOK, developed as part of the CES, has regional and local offices and provides career guidance and educational advice to anyone who requires it. Also important in this context is the National Strategy for the Lifelong Professional Guidance and Career Development in the Republic of Croatia 2014–2020, which focuses on the need to improve the availability of high-quality information on career opportunities in the labour market. In particular it draws attention to the need to make information on careers available through a variety of media channels. The aim is to increase the availability of professional guidance to jobseekers.
Mid-term and long-term skills data and intelligence from skills anticipation activities are made available through the Croatian Qualifications Framework (CROQF) web portal, which was developed in 2018 by the Ministry of Labour and Pension System in an effort to better link different databases on labour market and education, managed by public institutions (Croatian Employment Service, Croatian Pension Insurance Institute, Ministry of Science and Education and Croatian Bureau of Statistics). The portal integrates data on employment, unemployment, enrolment in secondary and higher education programmes, while sectoral and occupational information are also available through the portal. It is used by a range of stakeholders for labour market monitoring and the development of sector profiles and occupational standards. The portal aims to support information needs of various stakeholders, such as public institutions, education providers, students enrolling in secondary or higher education programmes, unemployed job seekers, professionals changing careers, employers etc. In 2020, the CROQF portal began integrating data from various sources, including the Croatian Pension Insurance Institute (HZMO), Croatian Employment Service (HZZ), Croatian Academic and Research Network (CARNET), and the University Computing Centre (SRCE). A competence-based matching system was developed, which aligned skills with ESCO and linked to the National Classification of Occupations (NKZ). The CROQF portal was transferred to the Shared Services Centre (Centar dijeljenih usluga, CDU), and data-sharing protocols and agreements are in preparation to integrate further administrative databases, such as the Central Registry of Affiliates (Regos), Croatian Bureau of Statistics (DZS), and Financial Agency (FINA).
As part of this upgrade, 25 sector profiles were updated, and the methodology for updating the National Classification of Occupations (NKZ) was prepared. Occupations in NKZ (version 98) were revised and classified according to CROQF sectors and sub-sectors, as a prerequisite for a new NKZ registry of occupations.
In 2021, the CROQF portal was further developed as a labour market portal, with the Financial Agency (FINA) and Central Registry of Affiliates (REGOS) providing data. The National Classification of Occupations (NKZ) was mapped to ESCO, and a list of 10 individual NKZ was adopted. An application for regulated professions was developed, and digital profiles of the sector were updated. A career monitoring and development system is also under development. [ix]
Please cite this document as: Cedefop. (2023). Skills anticipation in Croatia. Skills intelligence: data insights. URL [accessed DATE] |
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Endnotes
[i] Cedefop. Timeline of VET policies in Europe.
[ii] Cedefop. (2020).
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] European Commission. (2022).
[v] Recommendations correspond to occupations as classified in the PES registers that do not fully correspond to the titles of educational programmes.
[vi] Cedefop. Timeline of VET policies in Europe.
[vii] Available at https://www.asoo.hr/
[viii] Cedefop. Timeline of VET policies in Europe.
[ix] Ibid.
Data insights details
Table of contents
Page 1
SummaryPage 2
DescriptionPage 3
Methods and toolsPage 4
Dissemination and usePage 5
BibliographyPage 6
Endnotes