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Skills anticipation in Denmark (2023 Update)
Summary
Overview of the Danish approach
Denmark conducts skills anticipation activities based on collaboration and dialogue amongst ministries, public authorities and stakeholders. The main skills anticipation activities include:
- skills forecasting (e.g. statistical forecasting of education status and the demand and supply of labour in the public sector);
- skills assessments (e.g. quantitative sectoral assessments on imbalances in the labour market);
- skills foresights (e.g. sectoral assessments on future needs in the labour market);
- employer surveys.
The methodologies and time perspectives of these activities vary.
Skills anticipation in Denmark comprises a range of methods and tools, including quantitative forecasting; sector studies; qualitative methods; employer surveys and surveys of workers and graduates. Quantitative skills forecasting is well-established, and macro-econometric models are used to produce economic forecasts and policy assessments. However, skills anticipation methodologies differ between exercises and studies, which limit the availability of longitudinal data.
The overall aim of skills anticipation activities is to provide individuals with better opportunities to obtain employment and employability over time. The skills anticipation outputs are targeted at young people transitioning from school to employment, jobseekers, training providers and employers, and increasingly also people in employment with a view to having a better understanding of labour market dynamics as a basis for upskilling.
Social partners, key to the development of Danish skills anticipation activities, are involved in funding and direct research collaboration, mostly undertaken at trade and regional levels. There is a sense of cooperation amongst these partners with a shared aim of ensuring not only that young people and jobseekers base their decisions on empirical evidence, but that the education and training system is effective. Skills needs analysis is performed during the development of occupational standards and sectoral and regional analyses. The governance of skills anticipation activities is a highly developed and decentralised operation.
Responsibility for the day-to-day implementation of employment policy programmes in Denmark is largely decentralised to the municipal level. The eight Regional Employment Councils (RAR) coordinate regional labour market policy, focusing on targeted employment initiatives and business efforts. They pay special attention to industries with labour shortages and sectors experiencing high unemployment.
The Regional Employment Councils undertake skills analysis and disseminate trends at a regional level. Three Labour Market Offices work to ensure continuity in skills anticipation activities and support policy implementation at the local level.
Data is readily available, with tools to inform the wider public of career opportunities, the availability of training courses and content. Developed in 2006 as a part of a national monitoring strategy (national overvågningsstrategi) to support systematic monitoring of the labour market, the Danish Labour Market Balance provides data on job opportunities for approximately 900 occupations by region covering the entire labour market. The online interface of the Labour Market Balance provides public employment service staff with quantitative data for prioritising employment measures, and frontline caseworkers with a tool to support jobseekers in finding employment. The current regional Labour Market Balance is the most used tool providing data and intelligence from skills anticipation activities.
There is concern now that skills anticipation activities in the country are insufficient to capture structural skill changes and skill needs in the labour market, related to the so-called ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution’ (Industry 4.0), sectoral convergence and digital disruption. Prior to the tripartite negotiations in 2018-21, two expert groups analysed these needs for a more flexible structure with a view to better address this in the labour market education and training.[i]
Description
Danish skills anticipation activities are based on the involvement of social partners in funding and direct research collaboration, which is undertaken mostly at trade and local levels by research and consultancy companies. Skill needs analysis is performed during the development of occupational standards and sectoral and regional analyses.
Skills anticipation comprises a range of methods and tools, including quantitative forecasting; sector studies; qualitative methods; employer surveys; and surveys of workers and graduates. While there is no single national instrument for skills governance, quantitative skills forecasting is well-established. Macro-econometric models implemented in the 1970s are used to produce economic forecasts and policy assessments. The Danish employment forecasts and future labour market demands are categorised by sector and are combined with information about labour demand by educational level and sector. Potential imbalances in the labour market can be predicted by comparing future outflows from the education system with employment forecasts. Qualitative skills forecasting is also undertaken to assess future skill needs in the labour market; this is supported by administrative data.
The Danish Labour Market Balance is applied as a basis for managing:
- The National list of adult apprentices’ agreements for employees.
- The Positive List, a national and regional initiative introduced in 2017, consists of occupations experiencing a shortage of qualified workforce. It offers a 6-week training programme for the unemployed to bridge the gap in these high-demand areas.
- During notice periods for major dismissals in companies, upskilling is offered to affected employees. Criteria and conditions for major dismissals are determined by law, considering the proportion of terminated employees relative to the total workforce. In case of significant redundances, extraordinary opportunities for education and upskilling are provided, along with assistance in finding new employment.
- The Positive list for residence and work permits is designed for third country citizens allowing them to obtain permits more easily if their occupation is in high demand in the local labour market.
Alongside the forecasting instruments, there is a clear policy framework where goals, objectives and working methods are defined for the education system, the forecasting infrastructure, the labour market and all stakeholders involved. This is coupled with a well-developed tradition of social dialogue between stakeholders, but mainly in relation to low and middle-level skills. Their involvement in skills anticipation is not institutionalised at the higher skills levels. The government has tried to improve the match between graduate demand and supply through a centrally defined dimensioning model, which is based on historical data.[ii]
The municipal public employment services (PES) are responsible for matching and for active labour market policy, while monitoring and analysis are undertaken at the regional level. The Labour Market Balance supports the work of the PES. Developed in 2006 as a part of a national monitoring strategy (national overvågningsstrategi) to support systematic monitoring of the labour market through standardised methods and transparent communication about labour market developments,[iii] the Danish Labour Market Balance, with biannual updates, provides data on job opportunities for approximately 900 occupations by region covering the entire labour market. The Labour Market Balance model uses demand data from the employer survey and regional PES data on unemployment by qualification to serve as a proxy source for current supply.
Using these data, regional labour market intermediaries are able to prioritise employment and training measures and counsel jobseekers. The Labour Market Balance consists of three components:
- A national employer survey;
- A labour market model, drawing data from the survey, PES data on the registered unemployed and registered vacancies, and national statistical data about employment and turnover in the labour market;
- An online interface.
The online interface of the Labour Market Balance helps PES staff to prioritise employment measures, and frontline caseworkers with a tool to support jobseekers in finding employment. It allows the user to identify occupations with labour shortages or a sufficient supply of labour. Occupations are classified as ‘less good job opportunities’, ‘good job opportunities’ and ‘excellent job opportunities’. It is also used to manage the adult apprenticeship scheme, the ‘positive list’ (positivliste) for educational opportunities, migration policy and upskilling and reskilling. Data are updated every six months.
Aims
The overall aim of the skills anticipation activities is to provide individuals with better opportunities to obtain employment. To achieve this, skills planning uses foresight initiatives to inform education, employment and skills policies.
The purpose of the Labour Market Balance is to support the day-to-day operation of municipal job centres and other labour market actors and intermediaries. Its aim is to provide information on the regional job situation for guidance counsellors in PES, and to provide the regional governing bodies with an overview of the current employment situation that can inform the monitoring of employment policies and measures. The Labour Market Balance is a part of the Active Employment Initiative (Aktiv Beskæftigelsesindsats), established by law. It is used to target jobseeker CVs and job plans and offer upskilling, education, job training, etc.
Legal framework
Responsibility for the day-to-day implementation of employment policies in Denmark is largely decentralised to the municipal level. The Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment has three Labour Market Offices (Arbejdsmarkedskontorer) that work to ensure the implementation of reforms in municipal job centres and coordinate the continuity between employment, education and growth and business policies.[iv] In addition, they serve the eight Regional Employment Offices (Regionale Arbejdsmarkedsråd) that coordinate collaboration across municipalities and support for areas with either a lack of labour or high unemployment. Also, the Offices approve the regional ‘positive list’ for the regional education and training fund (uddannelsespulje).
At the national level, the (Ministeriet for Børn, Undervisning og Ligestilling) produces statistics on education, the labour market and labour supply, including forecasts on the educational behaviour of each cohort, which are used to set policy targets.
The Ministry of Finance (Finansministeriet) produces quantitative forecasts specifically on labour demand and supply in the public sector. Trade unions produce long-term forecasts on labour supply and labour market imbalances using data provided by Statistics Denmark (Danmarks Statistik), the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Employment (Beskæftigelsesministeriet).
The Ministry of Higher Education and Science (Uddannelses-og Forskningsministeriet) provides online guidance about higher education programmes with good employment prospects through Uddannelseszoom (Education Zoom), a digital tool for reviewing statistical data for higher education and training.[v]
At the regional level, future education and skill needs are examined by entities, such as the Regional Southern Denmark. These committees bring together representatives from regional authorities, municipalities, business communities, labour market actors and education and research organisations. They are tasked with creating and maintaining growth in their region. The Regional Growth Forum was in function from 2007-2018. With the subsequent Business Promotion Act the effort is now placed at the Business Promotion Board with three locations under the Danish Business Authority.
Finally, an independent think tank, the Economic Council of the Labour Movement (ECLM) (Arbejderbevægelsens Erhvervsråd) conducts small, in-depth analyses for unions and businesses. ECLM is funded by the Danish trade unions.
Governance
Skills governance is decentralised in Denmark. Although well-established, concerns are expressed that the existing approach may no longer suffice to inform stakeholders about medium-term skills needs. Regional offices and a national agency work to ensure a systematic approach, continuity and congruence in skills anticipation activities.
The role of stakeholders
A range of stakeholders participate in Danish skills anticipation activities through a well-established and transparent process of communication and cooperation. These social partners play an institutionalised role at all levels of skills anticipation and support the link between education and labour market needs, demonstrated by the number of fora comprising representatives from government, education, business and unions, such as , the Business Promotion Boards, the ECLM, the National Advisory Council for Initial Vocational Education and Training (Rådet for de grundlæggende Erhvervsrettede Uddannelser) and the trade committees.
At national level, the National Advisory Council for Initial Vocational Education and Training monitors developments in society and labour market and highlights trends influencing VET. The Council then makes recommendations to the Ministry of Education regarding the VET programmes and their labour market relevance. At a regional and local level, VET colleges and social partners work together to enhance VET programmes to meet the needs of the local business environment. This is supported by local training committees (lokale uddannelsesudvalg), which ensure close contact between VET colleges and the local business environment. Labour market training (Arbejdsmarkedsuddannelser) is designed according to short-term labour market forecasts focused on specific occupations.
In addition, there are approximately 50 trade committees (faglige udvalg) comprising employers and employees across Denmark. These trade committees set the content of education and training programmes, objectives and assessments. Local training committees (lokale uddannelsesudvalg) work with colleges in programme planning supporting collaboration with local trade and industry. They undertake relevant analyses, development projects, etc., and maintain close contact with relevant stakeholders to monitor the labour market. The Ministry of Education may also appoint development committees to examine new job areas that could possibly be covered by a VET programme. The committees are typically established in areas where no trade committees exist.[vi] From 2018 onwards, the Regional Labour Market Councils (RAR) have been tasked with strengthening regional and local cooperation to coordinate continuing education and training efforts. This will make it easier for companies to find qualified labour. The task is supported by a new reporting system, which allows job centres, employers, unemployment funds, and others to draw attention to unmet competence needs and the need for coordination of procurement. This information is then passed on to vocational schools, helping to coordinate courses across municipalities.
At the national level, there are also 11 Continuing Training and Education Committees (Efteruddannelsesudvalg for AMU uddannelser) that were established in 1994. They consist of social partners (employer associations and trade unions) representing specific fields of industry. The social partners play a major role in managing, prioritising, developing, organising, and quality assuring adult vocational training programmes. The primary function of the education and training committees is to monitor the labour market, prepare analysis, and develop adult vocational training programmes in accordance with the needs of the labour market.
However, since the establishment of the committees, there have been some challenges. Recently, an expert group analysed the system's ability to develop educational programmes that fulfil labour market needs. The expert group stressed the committees' lack of focus on cross-sectoral educational programmes due to the silo design of the committees, where each committee represents only one business sector. The challenge still remains, but currently, tripartite negotiations are underway to discuss a possible redesign of the system.[vii]
The independent National Skills Advisory Groups in Denmark support the coordination and dissemination of data and intelligence gathered as part of skills anticipation activities. Therefore, they play a key role in skills anticipation.
Target groups
A number of tools have been developed to provide access to data and intelligence from the skills anticipation activities:
- The Labour Market Balance, which was developed to assist management and staff in the municipal job centres. It provides regional intermediaries and other stakeholders in the labour market with easy access to information about the current situation.
- The Educational Guide (UddannelsesGuiden) is an online tool that provides information about educational programmes. The objective of this guide is to inform students about employment opportunities and prospects for an educational programme when entering education. Forecasts are also used to inform educational planning and training budgets.
- The ECLM provides data and intelligence for businesses, trade unions, and career counsellors located in schools and local educational guidance centres.
Guidance counsellors and services are a key target group for skills anticipation intelligence activities. Guidance counsellors and services are seen to have a key role in ensuring that young people, students and unemployed people have adequate information with which to make informed decisions.
Funding and resources
The Labour Market Balance is managed between the Danish Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment (Styrelsen for Arbejdsmarked og Rekruttering, STAR) and the regional Labour Market Offices. The Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment consists of 14 units, including the regional Labour Market Offices. In the Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment, one unit is responsible for the Labour Market Balance.[viii]
Methods and tools
There are various tools used in undertaking skills anticipation in Denmark.
Skills assessment
Skills assessments are produced by the Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment (Styrelsen for Arbejdsmarked og Rekruttering) and the Labour Market Offices. These assessments are presented online in the Labour Market Balance by region, sector and occupation. They are updated every January and July and are used by PES and career counsellors in the day-to-day work to support jobseekers. Skills assessments also include projects with financial support from the European Social Fund (ESF).
Skills forecasts
A number of forecast activities have been undertaken in Denmark:
- The National Agency for IT and Learning (part of the Ministry of Education) produces regular education statistics and quantitative forecasts on education. The statistics are disaggregated by education and show flows through the educational system.
- The Denmark Rational Economic Agent Model (DREAM) is a long-term dynamic computable general equilibrium model that can be used to simulate and forecast national education levels 30 to 40 years, or more, into the future. The model allows policymakers to evaluate long-term developments in the public finances. It is produced by the independent DREAM group.
- The Ministry of Finance develops quantitative forecasts on the demand and supply of skills in the public sector.
- The Profile Model (Profilmodellen) by the Ministry of Education uses the estimated educational status of each youth cohort transitioning through the education system in its forecasts. This model is based on past educational behaviour within the educational system; the educational level for each youth cohort leaving compulsory school is estimated for 25 years. The profile model is compared to labour market demands and forecasts to determine future skill needs and mismatches.[ix]
Skills foresight
The ECLM (Arbejderbevægelsens Erhvervsråd) is an independent think tank financed by trade unions. The aim of the ECLM is to contribute to a society where everyone has access to education. It conducts small, in-depth analyses for unions and businesses. It also produces skills foresights based on long-term forecasts (10 years) for labour supply and demand (to a lesser extent) using three kinds of models to analyse structural changes in the labour market:
- Administrative data about education and occupations from Statistics Denmark are used to construct models to assess probabilities of entering jobs in the labour market;
- An educational model (uddannelsesmodel) predicts the educational level and labour supply (using the Markov approach);
- Scenarios produced by DREAM (see above for more detail).
Other skills anticipation practices
In addition to the forecasting and foresight activities outlined above, other important sources of data from skills anticipation activities include:
- The national employer survey and
- Ad hoc analyses by the trade committees, the ECLM and the Business Promotion Board.
The national employer survey is conducted twice a year using a representative sample of private and public Danish companies (approximately 20,000 companies). The survey is contracted out to a private company by the Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment. The survey covers approximately 900 job categories. It has a response rate of about 70–75 per cent and covers around 40–50 per cent of employment in Denmark. It analyses recruitment and labour shortages, with a particular focus on where companies fail to recruit employees in specific occupations. The employer survey data feed into the Labour Market Balance model and allow demand identified in the survey to be compared with supply by occupation. Employer surveys are one of the main sources of information used by the PES[x] alongside their own administrative data. These surveys provide information on labour short-term changes and emerging trends in the demand for labour and skills.
To guide its actions regarding changes in skill sets, the PES uses big data, building on text analysis and machine-learning models to identify and categorise skills, as well as by using web scraping/web crawling to access and gather data. Skills and jobs surveys are also launched[xi].
In November 2020, the government, the National Association of Municipalities (KL), the national association of the Danish Regions and the social partners (the workers’ and employers’ unions) made a Tripartite agreement, to attract more people to vocational education and training (VET). The agreement entails allocating DKK 500 million annually with effect from 2021, including new apprenticeship-supporting initiatives financed through the Employers' Reimbursement Fund. Due to the Tripartite agreement, 2018- 2021, the initiative was put in place: more students on basic courses succeeded in signing a contract with a company before the end of the basic course.[xii]
Dissemination and use
Use of skills anticipation in policy
In Denmark, the skills assessment and anticipation exercises are used to determine secondary education provision; develop VET provision; support the services for young people and jobseekers; and inform migration policy.
At a national level, labour market forecasts have an impact on the budgets for training and education, as short- and medium-term projections are used as tools for planning and designing education and training budgets. Some educational institutions also use the forecasts to anticipate the intake of students (though not on a systematic basis).
Analysis of skills intelligence is managed by the Danish Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment under the PES. Skills intelligence is used by the PES to adjust upskilling and reskilling programmes to future skill needs and to support career guidance[xiii].
Jobservice Danmark was established in July 2015 as a hotline for employers experiencing difficulties with recruitment of qualified labour or who need to upskill their employees. It is managed by the regional Employment Offices and supports employers in their recruitment of people across municipalities.[xiv]
Target groups’ uses of skills anticipation outputs
The PES publishes analysis on the demand for skills on a quarterly basis and updates the Competence Model annually or bi-annually[xv].
The PES offers its staff with skills intelligence findings through handbooks/guidebooks/toolkits. Such outputs are also made available for PES customers (including jobseekers and employers)[xvi].
The skills anticipation outputs are targeted at young people transitioning from school to employment, jobseekers, training providers and employers. The current regional Labour Market Balances are shown on the websites of each employment region and are widely used, suggesting that outputs are reaching a wide audience. Importantly, outputs are aimed at labour market intermediates helping people transition into and through the labour market. Young people are ultimately the target group of the skills anticipation outputs. Ensuring young people complete compulsory education is a priority in Denmark[xvii] and the provision of high quality educational and vocational guidance is an important way of meeting these goals.
Please cite this document as: Cedefop. (2023). Skills anticipation in Denmark. Skills intelligence: data insights. URL [accessed DATE] |
Bibliography
- Andersen, T., Feiler, L. and Schulz, G. (2015). The Role of Employment Service Providers. Guide to Anticipating and Matching Skills and Jobs (volume 4). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
- Andersen, Ole Dibbern & Helms, Niels Henrik. (2019). Vocational education and training in Europe: Denmark. Cedefop ReferNet VET in Europe reports (2018).
- Andersen, O.D. (2020). International mobility in apprenticeships: focus on long-term mobility:Denmark. Cedefop ReferNet Thematic Perspectives. https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/country-reports/international-mobility-apprenticeships-focus-long-term-mobility-denmark
- Cedefop. (2020). Developments in vocational education and training policy in 2015-19: Denmark.
- ___ Timeline of VET policies in Europe
- Danish Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment (homepage).
- __ (2015). Regionale kontorer i Styrelsen for Arbejdsmarked og Rekruttering.
- __ Kontorer og enheder i Styrelsen for Arbejdsmarked og Rekruttering.
- __ Jobservice Danmark.
- Danish Institute for Economic Modelling and Forecasting – DREAM
- Economic Council of the Labour Movement. (2016). Danmark kommer til at mangle faglærte. Tema: Ubalancer på arbejdsmarkedet
- EEPO. (2015). Country Fiches on Skills Governance in the Member States – Denmark. Developed by the European Employment Policy Observatory for the European Commission. Brussels: European Commission.
- Euroguidance. Guidance System in Denmark
- European Commission. (2022). Future skills, career guidance and lifelong learning in PES. Thematic paper. Brussels. Author: Lukasz Sienkiewicz.
- European Commission/CEDEFOP/ICF International/. (2014). European Inventory on Validation of Non-Formal and Informal Learning 2014: Country Report Denmark. Brussels: European Commission
- Hawley-Woodall, J., Duell, N., Scott, D., Finlay-Walker, L., Arora, L. and Carta, E. (2015). Skills Governance in the EU Member States. Synthesis Report for the EEPO. Brussels: European Commission
- Husted, B. (2019). European inventory on validation of non-formal and informal learning 2018 update: Denmark.
- ILO. (2015). Anticipating and Matching Skills and Jobs. Guidance note. Geneva: International Labour Organization.
- ILO/Cedefop/OECD/ETF/. (2017). Skill needs anticipation: Systems and approaches. Analysis of stakeholder survey on skill needs assessment and anticipation. ILO
- Jamet, S. and Koen, V. (2014). Making the Most of Skills in Denmark (OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 1,119). Paris: OECD Publishing. As of 31 December 2016.
- Madsen, P.K. (2015a). Upskilling Unemployed Adults. The Organisation, Profiling and Targeting of Training Provision: Denmark. Luxembourg: European Employment Policy Observatory.
- __ (2015b). Youth Unemployment and the Skills Mismatch in Denmark. European Parliament Directorate General for Internal Policies, Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific policy
- Ministry of Children and Education.
- The Education Guide: UddannelsesGuiden.
- __ N.d.b. Vocational Education and Training.
- __ (2015). Om Rådet for de grundlæggende Erhvervsrettede Uddannelse.
- __ Andel af en årgang der forventes at få en uddannelse.
- Ministry of Employment
- Ministry of Finance. (2016). Økonomisk Analyse: Uddannelse og Arbejdsmarkedet.
- Ministry of Higher Education and Science
- __ Dimensionering af de videregående uddannelser.
- Labour Market Balance
- OECD. (2014). Regional Outlook: Denmark
- __ (2016). Getting Skills Right. Assessing and Anticipating Changing Skill Needs. Paris: OECD Publishing.
- Andersen O. and Kruse K. (2014). Apprenticeship-type Schemes and Structured Work-based Learning Programmes – Denmark. Cedefop ReferNet
- Region Syddanmark
- Regional Labour Market Councils (RAR)
- Rolls, S. (2014). Denmark: VET in Europe – Country Report. Cedefop ReferNet
- Statistics Denmark
- Trade committees.
Endnotes
[ii] Ministry of Higher Education and Science. (2016).
[iii] Danish Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment. (2006).
[iv] Danish Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment. (2015).
[v] Ministry of Higher Education and Science. (2016b).
[vi] Danish Ministry of Education. (n.d.).
[vii] For more information: Continuing training and education committees | CEDEFOP (europa.eu)
[viii] Danish Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment.
[ix] For more information about the Profile Model, see Danish Ministry of Education.
[x] European Commission. (2022).
[xi] Ibid.
[xii] Cedefop. Timeline of VET policies in Europe.
[xiii] Ibid.
[xiv] Danish Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment.
[xv]European Commission. (2022).
[xvi] Ibid.
[xvii] Euroguidance Denmark.
Data insights details
Table of contents
Page 1
SummaryPage 2
DescriptionPage 3
Methods and toolsPage 4
Dissemination and usePage 5
BibliographyPage 6
Endnotes