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11 DEC 2023
Data insights

Skills anticipation in Hungary (2023 Update)

Summary

Overview of the Hungarian approach

In Hungary, there is no coordinated skills anticipation system at the national level. The governance of skills anticipation mainly rests with the Ministry of Economic Development (Gazdaságfejlesztési Minisztérium). The responsible body within the Ministry, the State Secretariat for Employment Policy and Corporate Relations (headed by the Minister of State) was established in January 2023. The Ministry of Culture and Innovation (Kultúrális és Innovációs Minisztérium) is responsible for skills anticipation related to higher education and vocational education and training (VET). The national level of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (HCCI Magyar kereskedelmi és Iparkamara) have an important role in the supply and analysis of skills anticipation data, as does the Hungarian public employment services (PES) (Nemzeti Foglalkoztatási Szolgálat).

Skills anticipation in the country comprises a range of activities undertaken by different organisations. These activities are not coordinated; and stakeholders make use of only a small fraction of the relevant data available.

More specifically, skills anticipation is mainly dependent upon the results emanating from several surveys of employers, carried out by the public employment service (PES) and the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Magyar Kereskedelmi es Iparkamara, HCCI). The Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research also conducts employer surveys, collecting data about skills shortages. These provide substantial information on the current level of employment and the projected short-term demand for employment in various occupations or jobs. Projections about future skill needs are based on employers’ views of their skills needs over the next one to five years; however, there are concerns about the reliability of the results. Tracking surveys of graduates from VET and higher education (HE) are also in place.

In 2018, sector skills councils (SSCs) were formed to monitor labour market and technological developments, to inform education and training provision and the National Qualification Register. The Hungarian Chamber for Commerce and Industry oversees the work of the councils. At the same time, country level sectoral skills anticipation is not taking place since 2020.

Much of the data collated by the PES are available online in table format while data collected and processed by the HCCI can be viewed, analysed, and downloaded from its online portal. These data repositories target policymakers and employers, labour market intermediaries (e.g., employment agencies), and researchers.

Description

In Hungary, there is no coordinated skills anticipation system. Skills anticipation activities comprise of several employer surveys run by the PES and the Hungarian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (HCCI). The results of these surveys are important sources of skills intelligence and are used to provide estimates of current and future skills demand. The various skills anticipation activities that take place are thematically related, and the various agencies share know-how on an ad hoc basis. However, the activities and their results are not fully integrated. The PES also maintains the “vacancy monitor” (based on information from employers).

The Ministry responsible for skills and labour market forecasting is the Ministry of Economic Development (Gazdaságfejlesztési Minisztérium). Within the Ministry, the State Secretariat for Employment Policy and Corporate Relations (headed by a Minister of State), set up in January 2023, is the responsible body.[i]   

The Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research conducts employer surveys, also collecting data about skills shortages (Quarterly Business Climate Survey and Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends). The most notable of these is the “Short-term labour market prognosis” survey, conducted twice a year on a sample of employers.  Surveys of the demand for, and supply of students leaving vocational education, and tracking surveys of higher education graduates are also important sources of skills intelligence. It should be noted that the use of linked survey and administrative data relating to the career progression of higher education graduates represents a relatively advanced means of skills anticipation in Hungary. A similar career progression database for VET graduates is currently under development.

In 2018, sector skills councils (SSCs) were formed to monitor the labour market and technical technological developments to inform education and training provision, and the National Qualification Register. The Hungarian Chamber for Commerce and Industry oversees the work of the councils.

Aims

The primary aim of skills anticipation in Hungary is to match skills supply to labour demand, and it is used by the county-level employment departments of country government offices (county-level PES) in planning their operations. At the same time, county-level planning of VET ceased to exist, it is now done at the central level.

The new Ministry of Culture and Innovation (Kultúrális és Innovációs Minisztérium) has responsibility for the overall coordination of higher education, adult and vocational training. The underlying research is carried out by the National Office of Vocational Education and Training and Adult Learning (Nemzeti Szakképzési és Felnőttképzési Hivatal, NSZFH).

 Different elements of skills anticipation are designed to inform decision-making amongst policymakers, VET providers, young people for their studies, and jobseekers.

Legal framework

The regulatory framework relating to skills anticipation includes the following elements:

  • Data collection and statistical analysis carried out by the PES is regulated by the Government Decree 291/2006;
  • The development of graduate tracking was announced in the VET framework strategy (2005) with a regulation included as an amendment to the Public Education Law (2007) which stated that students, higher education institutions, and employers have a duty to provide data for statistical purposes. The tracking survey first run in 2010;
  • The new Act on Vocational Education (2019/LXXX) led to significant changes, most notably a centralisation of planning and control. This means that the Vocational Education Innovation Council advises the Ministry responsible for the provision of VET, which means that the role of Hungarian Chamber of Commerce has decreased.
  • The Government Decree 11/2020 established that the labour market forecasting is overseen by the National Office of Vocational Education and Training and Adult Learning (which is an institution of the Ministry of Culture and Innovation). 
  • In 2013, the Labour Offices which make up the regional and local levels of the PES were merged into county level Government Offices. In 2015, the organisation overseeing the Labour Offices (the National Employment Office) was formally closed and since 2018 the Ministry for Finance took direct charge of issues related to skills anticipation. Previously, it was the responsibility of the Ministry for the National Economy.

Governance

Skills anticipation activities are the responsibility of the following authorities:

  • Since 2020 the labour market anticipation is formally overseen by the National Office of Vocational Education and Training and Adult Learning.
  • Various government institutions have the obligation to supply relevant data to the National Office of Vocational Education and Training and Adult Learning, including the Hungarian Statistical Office (Központi Statisztikai Hivatal, KSH), the National Tax and Customs Administration (Nemzeti Adó- és Vámhivatal, NAV), the State Secretariat for Employment Policy and Corporate Relations; the State Secretariat for Vocational Education.
  • In 2019, decision-making on school-based VET provision was centralised, and since 2022 is supervised by the Ministry for Culture and Innovation (State Secretariat for Vocational Education).
  • The skills anticipation related to higher education has been transferred to the Ministry for Culture and Innovation (State Secretariat for Higher Education).

The role of stakeholders

There is a formal process for involving social partners in discussions relating to skill needs. Within this process, employers tend to be the more influential stakeholder group. The involvement of employers’ organisations is central to skills anticipation in the country: the Hungarian Chambers of Commerce and Industry at national and county levels are key players in data collection, analysis, and policy consultations relating to VET.

Employers’ role is central also in sectoral skills councils (SSCs) that are operative since July 1st, 2018 based on the Act CLXXXVII/2011 on vocational training. There are 19 SSCs for 41 economic sectors, where between 7 and 19 business representatives sit, depending on sectoral size and structure. SSCs keep track of economic, labour-market and technological developments at sectoral level, including analysis and forecasts of skills needs. Based on the latter, they propose changes in the national qualifications register and suggest short- and medium-term adjustments of the vocational and adult education system to facilitate the match with labour market needs. So far, the role of SSCs has proved important as they link employers’ needs and proposals with VET. Communication and collaboration between the SSCs and the Ministry for Culture and Innovation, with the support of the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry has played a major role.
 

Target groups

The intended primary user groups are policy makers at national and county level and VET providers, as well as county-level PES offices. The objective of making labour market information available is to enable policy makers, individuals, employers, and training providers make informed decisions. Young people deciding on VET and higher education courses, together with jobseekers and career guidance professionals are the secondary intended user groups.

The following organisations also use the results of skills anticipation exercises:

  • The Vocational Education Innovation Council (Szakképzési Innovációs Tanács, SZIT) that assists the minister responsible for VET. It is a consultative body without any decision-making mandate. It can, however, issue recommendations and evaluations regarding VET policy and financing, and the National Qualifications Register (NQR);
  • The National Qualification Committee is an advisory body working on the development of VET content. It monitors conditions in the external environment (e.g., economic and technological change) and the extent to which these require modifications to be made to the NQR;
  • The National Economic and Social Council of Hungary (Nemzeti Gazdasági és Társadalmi Tanács, NESC) is a consultative, proposal-making and advisory body independent of the Government. Members include representatives of the economy: advocacy groups, employer associations, trade unions, representatives from academia, non-governmental organisations, and churches.

Funding and resources

Skills anticipation is funded by the central government.

Methods and tools

Skills anticipation exercises in Hungary utilise various methods including employer surveys and statistical modelling.

Skills assessment

There are no skills assessment activities in Hungary.

Skills forecasts

Long-term skills forecasts are currently not developed. Previously, a comprehensive framework and databank for labour market forecasts existed but has been discontinued in 2020.

Skills foresight

Some foresight work is undertaken only on an ad hoc basis at sectoral level.

Other skills anticipation practices

The short-term labour market prognosis of the PES and HCCI is the longest running skills anticipation exercise in Hungary, first established in 1992 by the predecessor of the current PES. It is based on survey data collected from employers. The survey is run jointly by the PES (for medium-sized and large firms) and the Institute of Economics and Enterprise Research of the HCCI (for small firms). The questionnaire collects information on details of employers’ business plans and on expectations between one and five years into the future. Comprehensive information on employers’ human resource requirements is also collected. Based on the survey, data estimates of future skills demand are produced by the Institute of Economics and Enterprise Research of the HCCI. The analysis is dependent upon the views of the employers and there are concerns these may provide unreliable evidence. A 2012 follow-up survey questioned the reliability of employers’ predictions of their future skills needs (one year and five years ahead respectively) as a source of evidence.[ii]


The bi-annual survey of human resource management targets private sector companies and is coordinated by the PES. It collects information on the number of recruits and of employees expected to leave the organisation over the next 12 months. Data are collected by occupation. The survey provides a source of short-term employment level data. Due to its high response rate, the survey is considered an important source of short-term skills intelligence. There are, however, concerns about the representativeness of the survey when disaggregated by geography, sector, or firm size. [iii]

The Integrated Higher Education Graduate Tracking Database (Diplomás Pályakövető Rendszer, IHGTD) combines information on graduates’ careers with administrative data from the Higher Education Information System, the database of the Hungarian Tax Office, and the PES. The IHGTD provides skills intelligence through matching education and employment data. By looking at types of degree courses that graduates pursued and comparing this with their subsequent employment, a detailed picture of graduates’ entry to, and progression through, the labour market is provided. It is considered to be one of the most advanced sources of labour market intelligence available in Hungary.

Previous annual surveys of the demand and supply of students leaving VET have been discontinued as of 2020. The Vocational Education Tracking System (Szakképzési Pályakövetési Rendszer), which is to be similar to the IHGTD is currently under development. Surveys of VET graduates have been piloted in 2022.

In 2017, the National Office of Vocational Education and Training and Adult Learning (NOVETAL) set up a career tracking system in VET, and a pilot version has been developed and introduced in 2021. Its main elements are the ‘Adult training reporting system’ (FAR) and the ‘VET information system’ (SZIR) modules within the Public Education Registration and Study Information System (NEPTUN-KRETA). There are plans to link this to administrative data to monitor the effectiveness of VET trainings. As of early 2023 this has not been put in place, and hence cannot be used by policymakers (or the wider public) for skills anticipation.

The Vacancy Monitor of the Public Employment Service collects information from employers who seek assistance from the PES. The database is available to jobseekers in the PES offices, as well as online as a “virtual labour market”. This information source is selective by its nature (i.e., it only contains jobs posted by the PES), but it nonetheless provides up-to-date information on current skills demand and the extent to which job vacancies are filled.

Dissemination and use

Use of skills anticipation in policy

Data and analyses outlined in Section “Methods and Tools” are available to the government/policymakers. In general, the extent to which the data and its analysis influence policy is unclear.

Target groups’ uses of skills anticipation outputs

Skills anticipation data are intended for use by policy-makers, young people (either making the transition from school to work or choosing which courses to study), jobseekers, training providers, employers (represented by the HCCI and other business associations), and labour market intermediaries (e.g. careers counsellors).


Young people and jobseekers can access information through the online portals of the PES and the HCCI.[iv] These portals, however, are geared more towards policymakers, employers and researchers than jobseekers or young people.

Those responsible for higher education provision are also a target audience. Data from the graduate tracking tool described in Section “Methods and Tools” are used by the Ministry of Culture and Innovation to inform its decision-making. The data do not, however, have a direct influence on setting enrolment levels for higher education institutions.

 

Please cite this document as: Cedefop. (2023). Skills anticipation in Hungary. Skills intelligence: data insights. URL [accessed DATE]

Bibliography

Endnotes

[i] The previous framework for labour market forecasts, developed by the Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies  has been abondoned.

[ii] Czibik, Á., Fazekas, M. Németh, N. Semjén, A. & Tóth, I.J. (2012). Labour Demand Forecasting Based on Business Expectations – Lessons Learnt from Two Consecutive Enterprise Surveys. Budapest: MTA KRTK KTI.

[iii] NGM. (2015).

[iv] GVI. (2016b).