Skills anticipation in Austria (2023 Update)

Summary

Overview of the Austrian approach

At its core, skills anticipation in Austria is done by the Austrian Economic Research Institute (Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, WIFO), the Institute of Advanced Studies (Institut für Höhere Studien, IHS) and Statistics Austria (Statistik Austria) who have a public contract for regular forecasting activities. Another central actor is the Public Employment Service (Arbeitsmarktservice, AMS) who commissions relevant studies on a regular basis, e.g., the annual apprenticeship forecasts or the mid-term forecasts conducted by Synthesis Forschung (Synthesis Research). Furthermore, for more than 20 years the AMS has financed the Skills Barometer, a comprehensive online information system.

Until its last update in July 2020, the Skills Barometer was an online tool providing comprehensive information on the current labour market situation in Austria as well as the trends for the following four years from the national, regional, occupational and even skills perspective at several levels of detail. Its output was aimed at young people, career counsellors, AMS advisers, educational institutions, employers, job seekers, and policymakers. Currently the Skills Barometer is undergoing fundamental reorganisation. To date, it is still uncertain when a relaunch of this information system will go online.

The Skilled Labour Radar undertaken by ibw Austria - Research & Development in VET provides analysis of unemployment, employment trends and the job market, as well as examines the demand for, and shortage of, skilled workers through a national employer survey. The aim of this initiative is to create a monitoring system.

An even more ambitious monitoring system for skills shortages is currently under development under the auspices of the Austrian Federal Ministry of Labour and Economy, involving Statistics Austria and the Institute of Advanced Studies (Institut für Höhere Studien, IHS).

Stakeholder involvement in skills anticipation is underpinned by the relatively high degree of social partnership in Austria.  These stakeholders are involved in the process of skills anticipation through, for instance, their roles on the regional platforms and the Committee for New Skills at the national level. Nevertheless, there is no formal mechanism ensuring that the outcomes of skills anticipation initiatives are used to inform decisions within the education and training system.

Description

There are various activities in place to anticipate skills needs in Austria, namely:

• The (currently discontinued) AMS Skills Barometer,[i] which summarised and interpreted already available data and information on labour market needs across regions, sectors and areas of work (last update: July 2020; relaunch pending);
• Quantitative forecasts, projecting employment by sectors and occupations at the national as well at the regional level, produced by the WIFO, in 2022 for the period 2022-2023[ii];
• Sector studies, involving key stakeholders in workshops (see the Standing Committee on New Skills, or Plattform Industrie 4.0);[iii]
• Projecting skills demand at the regional level, such as platforms and partnerships involving key stakeholders that use a range of data to assess future skills needs established in some of the provinces (federal state);
• The Skilled Labour Radar study uses existing sources and an employer survey to report on the regional distribution and shortage of skilled workers.

Stakeholders are actively involved in skills anticipation. The Standing Committee for New Skills is a key coordinator of stakeholder participation. The Committee consists of AMS (Austrian Public Employment Services) representatives, social partners, business representatives, training institutions and VET experts.

Aims

Skills anticipation activities have the following objectives:

• To provide information to assist the AMS to better target skills training and match people to jobs;[iv]
• To improve the knowledge base to assist in offsetting the emergence of skills shortages;
• To provide skills information to policymakers at different levels, as well as educational institutions, social partners, workers, jobseekers,[v] and education providers[vi];
• To reduce skills mismatches starting with the provision of secondary education[vii];
• To monitor the demand and shortage of skilled workers.

Legal framework

There is neither a legal framework for skills anticipation nor are there formal procedures for using its results. There is, however, a legal requirement to produce a list of skills shortage occupations annually, for which migrants from outside the EU are eligible to receive work permits (the ‘Red-white-red-card’ system).

Governance

There is no single recognised authority responsible for the governance of skills anticipation, though much of the skills anticipation that takes place is under the auspices of the AMS. At the national level, the main actors are the Federal Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection (Bundesministerium für Arbeit, Soziales, Gesundheit, Pflege und Konsumentenschutz, or Sozialministerium), the Federal Ministry of Education, Science and Research  (Bundesministerium für Bildung, Wissenschaft und Forschung, or BMBWF), and the Federal Ministry of Labour and Economy (Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Wirtschaft, or BMAW). The AMS is under the responsibility for the BMAW. [viii]

Respectively, the regional Authorities[ix] in the nine federal states bear the responsibility for the skills anticipation activities at that level. The AMS also has a governance role at the federal level.

The role of stakeholders

The most important stakeholder and end-user of skills anticipation is the AMS. It also commissions regular as well as ad hoc studies on skills anticipation for use in assisting jobseekers. It has commissioned studies and forecasts to gather information on future skills developments and skills demands to inform the design of training courses and programmes, and also to disseminate findings to a wider audience. AMS does not have a specialised unit or department that deals with skills intelligence or forecasting, as this is handled by the department of labour market research and career information of the Ministry of Labour[x].

The involvement of social partners in skills anticipation is, in general, strong. These, together with the Austrian AMS, are members of the Standing Committee for New Skills. They are also typically involved at provincial and local level skills anticipation activities. Additionally, stakeholders play a role in skills anticipation at the regional level through regional, non-governmental institutions such as the Chamber of Labour (Arbeiterkammer). Such institutions carry out or commission skills anticipation studies/exercises on an ad hoc basis. Although many stakeholders are involved in the different skills anticipation activities, there is no coordination amongst the different elements of skills anticipation.

There is a wide number of stakeholders engaged in skills anticipation at national and local levels, building on the well-developed system of social partnership in the country. For example, the regional platforms, and the Standing Committee for New Skills of the AMS, working at the national level. The Standing Committee for New Skills can be seen as an example of good practice for involving relevant stakeholders in identifying current and future skills requirements and designing relevant training curricula for some occupations. As members of the Standing Committee for New Skills they are responsible for drawing up recommendations to be used at a policy level. They also advise on changes in curricula for targeted training programmes, based on the Committee’s knowledge of short- and medium-term skills requirements, considering underlying trends in the labour market, such as “green” technologies and skills, globalisation, and the diffusion of new technologies.

The Austrian Economic Chamber (Wirtschaftskammer Österreich, WKÖ) represents the State Chambers in each of the nine regions and industry trade associations. It provides a range of support for its members on legislation, policy and education ensuring that industries can respond to labour market changes. 

Target groups

Skills anticipation data are used by a variety of target groups, including AMS staff, individuals using the advisory services provided by the AMS, those who oversee coordinating education institutions at secondary, upper-secondary and higher levels, as well as individual employers, the social partners and other policy makers[xi]. The AMS is primarily concerned with assisting jobseekers to find jobs and employers to fill vacancies. As such, educational institutions use skills anticipation results to alter their provision of training courses; nonetheless, there is evidence that the AMS is more relevant to the design and delivery of apprenticeships than to higher education provision[xii].

The AMS Skills Barometer in its old format (as maintained until July 2020) was targeting young but also older people facing career decisions, guidance counsellors, AMS advisers, those working in educational institutions, employers, job seekers, and policymakers.

Funding and resources

Overall funding for skills anticipation activities in Austria is difficult to quantify. There are several organisations (IHS, WIFO, Statistics Austria) core financed by the public who in return must – amongst other tasks – also engage in forecasting activities. There are three ministries (BMAW, BMBW and Sozialministerium) and the AMS having annual budgets for commissioning research. And there are European funding programmes like e.g., the European Social Fund (ESF) or Horizon Europe which are tapped into for funding ad hoc studies.

Methods and tools

Skills assessment

For 20 years the AMS Skills Barometer was the most comprehensive labour market monitoring exercise undertaken in Austria. This online tool was annually updated, providing information on general labour market trends as well as skills demand. Text information was based on already available studies, expert surveys, and ad hoc studies - combining it with quantitative information from print, but at later stages online-vacancy analyses. Its aim was to give an overall picture of the current situation and an outlook for the next four years. The AMS Skills Barometer presented information from different angles and at several levels of specificity:

• At the level of 15 broad ‘occupational areas’;
• At the level of 93 more specific ‘occupational fields’ (which are linked to more than 500 subordinated occupations);
• At national level, but also
• At the level of Austria’s 9 federal states

Special add-ons were dedicated to labour market relevant gender issues as well as green skills demand.

Particular attention was paid to skills and competencies at the level of transversal as well as occupation-specific ones, presented in tables assessing also current and future demand for all 93 occupational fields.

Another relevant exercise in predicting skills demand is the Standing Committee for New Skills (put in place by the AMS), which follows a Delphi-style approach to its work. The Committee’s working groups were created for specific sectors comprising the social partners, education/training institutions, and VET/sector experts (e.g., in construction and building, business administration, chemicals and plastics, electrical engineering/electronics/telecommunications, energy and environmental engineering, commerce, machinery/motor vehicles/metal, tourism, and health). These groups are responsible for compiling sector-specific lists of current and future skills requirements for employees and job seekers. The outcomes are used by the AMS for designing training measures targeting unemployed people.

Some provinces in Austria have made arrangements for stakeholders to work together to consider issues relating to the demand for, and supply of, skills at the regional level. These regional platforms[xiii] have a wide range of stakeholder involvement, including representatives of social partners, regional AMS representatives, leaders of enterprises and representatives of regional development agencies, all of whom collaborate to develop strategies and employment programmes based on analyses of skills demand and supply in sectors and occupations. General strategies are designed for future training and employment.

Skills forecasts

Forecasting activities consist of:

• A short-term (one year) and medium-term (five-year) projection for employment and unemployment. This activity is based on a database and includes disaggregated estimations according to region, sector, gender, age group, formal qualification levels, and different socioeconomic traits;[xiv]
• The quantitative short-term and medium-term model-based projections additionally provide forecasts at the national level for: (i) a yearly updated projection of the demand for apprenticeships and the supply of apprenticeship graduates made by Synthesis Forschung: and (ii) a predominately supply-oriented forecast that provides information on the number of higher education graduates from, mainly, the university sector by Statistics Austria;[xv]
• Medium-term (four years) employment projections by sector and occupations at the regional level (produced by the WIFO, updated in 2022 for the period 2023-2027), as well as a medium-term prognosis of employment and unemployment until 2025 on behalf of the AMS.[xvi]

The above-mentioned Skills Barometer of the Austrian AMS analysed and interpreted short- and medium-term forecasts and summarised insights for the general public.

Also, qualitative forecasting is used by AMS[xvii].

Skills foresight

The AMS mostly commissions skills foresight exercises. Amongst these some are periodically repeated like those delivered by Synthesis Research (Synthesis Forschung), but also those undertaken on an ad hoc basis related to specific topics, for example, about the future role of women in the labour market.

Foresight results, stemming from interviews and surveys with stakeholders, expert workshops/meetings/panels and SWOT analysis are reportedly used by the Austrian Public Employment Service. Factors affecting future skills are taken into consideration, such as technological change (including digitalisation/automation, etc.), environmental issues (including climate change, economy greening, etc.), demographic changes (including population ageing, generational changes, etc.), increasing inequalities (including the exclusion of vulnerable groups, labour market polarisation, etc.), globalisation issues (including migration, global supply chains, etc.) and changes in the world of work (including the emergence of new forms of work, online/distance working and learning, etc.)[xviii].

Other skills anticipation practices

Ad hoc sectoral and occupational studies are also in place. These are commissioned by the AMS, federal Ministries, and regional governments to analyse labour market prospects and skills demands in different fields and sectors.

Until 2012 a regular enterprise survey among more than 7,000 enterprises with at least 20 employees was carried out every two years. Commissioned by the AMS, the survey collected, amongst other things, quantitative information on the most demanded occupations and qualifications.

The Skilled Labour Radar undertaken by ibw Austria Research & Development in VET for WKÖ in 2018 is a two-part study, which is due to be repeated every two years. The first part includes secondary data analyses and focuses on key indicators on unemployment, employment trends and the job market. A national survey of 4,500 companies examining the demand and shortage of skilled workers concerns the second part of the study. Motivating companies to participate in regular surveys is considered a challenge, given the large number of ongoing surveys that companies are invited to contribute to. In May/June 2021, another survey of more than 4,200 companies was conducted as part of the Skilled Labour Radar.[xix] The Radar shows the current situation in terms of the demand and shortage of skilled workers in Austria. The aim is to create a monitoring system reporting on the shortage of skilled workers, qualifications, competence requirements, plus employer expectations and demands.

The Skilled Labour Radar aims to fill in the gap of regularly collected, specific and comprehensive information on the skilled labour needs of companies in Austria to date. The study makes available current, timely and empirically founded findings on the shortage of skilled workers, qualifications, competence requirements and employment expectations. It also provides forecasts of skilled labour demand and shortages.

In 2018, WKÖ also launched the initiative 'We educate the economy' with the first measures implemented in 2019, foreseeing major challenges in the field of education and training. The project aims to improve the competitiveness of the Austrian economy through VET and promote innovation while supporting social inclusion. As part of this initiative, a graduate tracking was commissioned in 2021 with the aim to examine the impact of the WKÖ education measures in terms of career entry and career change. Regular graduate surveys will be carried out as well as secondary statistical analyses ('graduate tracking') to assess the impact of the WKO education measures in terms of career entry, career change and participant satisfaction[xx]. In 2019, AMS started the New Digital Skills initiative extending the long-running New Skills project. The aim is to engage experts in a range of workshops to examine new and existing competencies resulting from increasing digitalisation. This information will feed into and inform CVET programmes.

Future skill needs are analysed by the AMS to tailor training offering to employees and jobseekers. Skills intelligence is used by the AMS to respond to changes in skill sets in the short-term (e.g., due to the Covid-19 pandemic) and in the long-term (due to digitalisation). Skills intelligence is also used to assess changes in skill sets driven by the greening of the economy[xxi]. 

Since 2016, the AMS also uses online vacancy analyses for detecting detailed information on skills and occupations in demand. As data source Jobfeed, a big data platform comprehensively covering the Austrian online vacancy market is being used. An annual quantitative analysis, undertaken for the AMS until reporting year 2020, broke down demand as online job adverts per occupation. Results were displayed in the Skills Barometer’s tables characterising occupational areas and fields[xxii]. Jobfeed data is also used to update the skills profiles of the AMS Occupational Information System as well as for amending the taxonomies structuring it.

Dissemination and use

Use of skills anticipation in policy

Although currently not updated, the AMS Skills Barometer is still accessible via the AMS website. In the past, information from this platform was broadly used by AMS employees for guidance and counselling.

The Annually published Skills Structure Reports archived the yearly updates of the AMS Skills Barometer, supplementing it with demand information taken from e.g., Statistic Austria’s Prognosis of the university sector (Hochschulprognose) or the AMS Apprenticeship forecast (Lehrlingsprognose).

Information from the Skills Barometer was also disseminated through the Career Compass. This is an online tool that gathers information on career advice based on labour market changes. It compiles information from a range of sources, such as the occupational information system, which presents occupational data related to educational pathways and regularly updated job vacancies. It is linked to the AMS Skills Barometer.

The AMS, as well as its own Career Guidance Service, is one of the main users of the skills anticipation data, mainly to shape its policies.  Although there is neither the obligation nor a formal process for making use of the data, counsellors in the AMS career information centres and also those in charge of planning training programmes in the provincial AMS offices often relied on information derived from the Skills Barometer. Skills intelligence outputs are available in handbooks/guidebooks/toolkits for AMS staff and handbooks/guidebooks/toolkits for customers (including job seekers and employers). Internal conferences/seminars are organised for staff, including career guidance counsellors[xxiii].

Representatives of social partners and advisory board members also took on board findings of the Skills Barometer as background information for their discussions.
The Standing Committee on New Skills of the AMS disseminates and uses information, namely through summarising workshop meetings and drawing up conclusions and recommendations with respect to various stakeholders. These stakeholders include policymakers, those responsible for coordinating aspects of the education system, the AMS, and those responsible for continuing education and training provision.[xxiv]

Target groups’ uses of skills anticipation outputs

The main user of skills anticipation outputs is the AMS. It uses skills intelligence to achieve its main target, that is reducing unemployment by developing up-skilling and re-skilling programmes addressing future skills requirements and programmes addressing concerns of social and emotional proximity, developing practice-based learning using virtual platforms and digital resources for online learning, and supporting and strengthening career guidance[xxv]. Active Labour Market Policies are redefined /re-designed in line with the changing skills requirements. Ministries may also use skills data stemming from the aforementioned anticipation exercises. Other stakeholders, such as social partners, can initiate adjustments or create apprenticeship curricula, based on several sources and skills anticipation results. Data from the Skilled Labour Radar will also be used by Ministries and those in education to inform the CVET.  

Schools were also using skills intelligence, such as the Skills Barometer, to provide support and advisory services to pupils and their parents. Career and guidance services are offered by various organisations (including the AMS, social partners, government ministries and associations) for different target groups ranging from adults in full-time education to those in the labour market.

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Endnotes