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Skills anticipation in Latvia (2023 Update)
Summary
Overview of the Latvian approach
Since 2007, when a medium (up to 10 years) and long-term (up to 25 years) labour market forecast was implemented, Latvia has made substantial progress in developing a coherent approach to skills anticipation, with the support of the European Social Fund (ESF). Further funding provided by the ESF in 2021 resulted in the development of a short-term labour supply and demand forecasting and monitoring system.
The information that guides policy changes that impact economic development in Latvia primarily consists of medium- and long-term labour market forecasts. These forecasts are essential tools for anticipating future labour market mismatches by unveiling trends and potential risks within the current education system and its supply structure. The forecasts are premised on the assumption that the labour market will evolve in tandem with economic growth targets and scenarios, while the education sector will remain relatively static – with no significant changes in the education supply, and the prevailing trends in obtaining education persisting. The medium- and long-term forecasting activities provide labour demand and supply forecasts by sector, occupation and educational attainment (level and field/discipline). Meanwhile, annual short-term employment forecasts are provided by sector and occupation at a regional level.
The web-based platform for labour market forecasts has been developed under the Operational Programme “Growth and Employment” as part of the European Regional Development Fund project “Development of Labour Force Supply and Demand Forecasting and Monitoring System” (No. 2.2.1.1/17/I/032). The Ministry of Economics (Ekonomikas ministrija), the State Employment Agency (Nodarbinātības valsts aģentūra) – which serves as the national public employment service (PES) – and the Ministry of Welfare (Labklājības ministrija) all contribute to skills forecasting activities.
Various stakeholders have an important role in the skills anticipation process, including the representatives from the education system, as well as employee and employer organisations. Numerous committees, working groups and other entities address issues related to the labour market and education provision utilising insights from the forecasts. Education institutions, employees’ and employers’ organisations also contribute valuable information to skills anticipation activities.
The main target audience of the forecasts are employment and education policymakers, the social partners, academics and other stakeholders. Information is disseminated to these groups through various means, including the State Employment Agency’s visualisation tool, websites of government ministries and agencies, and through the media. Efforts to enhance access to skills anticipation information are ongoing.
Description
The Ministry of Economics has been preparing and updating medium-term labour market forecasts since 2007 and, since 2011, it has also been preparing long-term forecasts. Economic development and demographic scenarios underpin these labour market forecasts, which are based on Latvia's medium and long-term growth objectives as outlined in Latvia's Sustainable Development Strategy “Latvija 2030” and the National Development Plan for 2021-2027.
While the Ministry of Economics is focusing on medium to long-term forecasting (10-25 years’ perspective), the State Employment Agency, operating under the supervision of the Ministry of Welfare, tends to focus on short-term forecasting (e.g., annual perspective).
Labour market forecasts primarily rely on the data gathered from the national statistics programme, which has been regularly collected by the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) (Centrālā Statistikas pārvalde). The most important source of information is the Labour Force Survey (LFS) data. The core forecast assumptions regarding the demand and supply of labour force are based on the LFS. The 2022 medium-term and long-term labour market forecasts use the LFS microdata from 2020 and the LFS aggregated data from 2021. The CSB provides data on the number and composition of the population in 2021 and early 2022, as well as demographic trends over the past two decades, which form the basis for demographic forecasts. Long-term assumptions about fertility and mortality rates are derived from the base scenario of the EUROPOP2019 demographic forecast developed by Eurostat. The education system structure and the labour market entrants modelling are based on education statistical data mainly gathered from CSB’s Report on vocational education institutions and Report on higher education institutions and colleges.
Skills anticipation in the country is still undergoing development with a view to improving forecasting activities, more effectively and efficiently involving stakeholders such as the social partners and disseminating the results to intended target groups.
With funding from the ESF between 2014 and 2020, several activities on improving skills forecasting were implemented aiming at:
- better interlinking of the results from forecasting with policymaking;
- improving the methodology for short-term forecasting;
- improving the data collection from employers and using this data in short-term forecasting;
- improving dissemination of the results of skills anticipation to policymakers, social partners and other stakeholders.
The labour market forecasting system was developed through the ESF-funded project ‘Development of labour market forecasting system’ (2016-2022), managed by the State Employment Agency in cooperation with the Ministry of Economics. This system provides policy makers with data to support job pre-emptive labour market reforms. Interactive online tools[i] have been developed for policy makers and the general public (including educational institutions, career planning and professional development centres, and graduates planning to continue their studies), offering access to the results of the labour market forecasts.
During the project implementation the following activities were carried out:
- A study was conducted to investigate the development of a pre-emptive system for labour market transformation, as well as the connection between market forecasts and employment policies;
- A methodology for short-term labour market forecasting was developed, which encompassed short-term projections from a skills perspective and guidance for methodology users;
- Five employer surveys were conducted to update labour market short-term forecasts;
- A technical specification was created for the development of labour supply and demand projections within the display platform, including a visual solution prototype for medium and long-term forecasting and analysis.
Establishing a system for monitoring the quality of education was one of the 12 action lines set out in the Education Development Guidelines 2014-2020.[ii]
In April 2018, the Ministry of Education launched the implementation of the ESF co-financed project No 8.3.6.2/17/I/001 “Establishment and Implementation of the Education Quality Monitoring System”. State Education Quality Service, National Centre for Education, University of Latvia and University of Liepaja participate in the project as partners. The project is expected to be completed in December 2023. The aim of the project is to establish an education quality monitoring system based on the measurement and analysis of statistical information, comparative education research results, national level student achievement and other performance indicators of educational institutions, centralised examination results and the use and analysis of accreditation, licensing and teacher performance assessment information, in line with medium- and long-term strategic objectives and outcomes for the sector. The following activities are carried out during the project:
- Development, validation and implementation of the description of the Education Quality Assessment Monitoring System and the descriptions of the education quality monitoring tools included in it;
- Development and implementation of a national research programme in education;
- Implementation of targeted cooperation, strategic communication and training activities on the monitoring of quality assessment in education and its use in education policymaking.
In 2021, the Ministry of Education launched research to develop and implement an education quality risk identification system. The aim of the research is to develop a mathematical model of the components of the education quality management system and its prototype, Education quality risk identification system for general education and vocational education.
Work on an online glossary of education terms has begun. The aim is to develop an online glossary explaining education terms in Latvian, with equivalent terms in English, French, German and Russian to ensure:
- development of education terminology in Latvia;
- qualitative use of education terms;
- the development of a common understanding of the correct use of education terminology.
Work on two monitoring tools was continued. A monitoring tool for graduate tracking in higher education was published on the State education information system public portal. The piloting of a monitoring tool for school network efficiency analysis in general education has been launched.[iii]
Aims
The aim of skills anticipation, as indicated by the Ministry of Economics, is to develop a coordinated approach to forecasting skills demand and supply which can be used in employment, education, and social policy making. This provides a structured framework for discussing and developing policy responses to labour market challenges.[iv]
Legal framework
There is relatively little regulation on skills anticipation. The National Development Plan 2014 - 2020 acknowledges the need for a tool that monitors trends in the labour market and forecasts future developments. A Cabinet Protocol Decision[v] outlines the need for a forecasting tool and sets it as a function of the Ministry of Economics. The Ministry of Economics prepares a report every year on medium- and longer-term labour market forecasts for approval by the Cabinet of Ministers (CM). The Decision also foresees that such a report is prepared on an annual basis. Since 2017 the Ministry of Economics has been preparing it biennially. The latest report outlines the current situation in the labour market and includes medium-term labour market forecasts up to 2030 and long-term labour market forecasts up to 2040. These labour market forecasts are based on the economic development and demographic scenarios, which were developed by the Ministry of Economics.
Following the 2016 CM Regulation[vi] on the ‘Rules of implementation of the system of anticipating changes in the labour market’, the PES, in conjunction with the Ministry of Economics, implemented a project co-financed by the ESF regarding the establishment of a comprehensive labour market anticipation system using forecasting methods.
The task to carry out short-term forecasting is defined in the Law on Support for Unemployed People and Jobseekers. Detailed procedures are described in the State Employment Agency’s internal circulars.
Governance
The Ministry of Economics shares policymaking activities relating to employment and skills with the Ministry of Welfare and the Ministry of Education and Science (Izglītības un zinātnes ministrija). The Ministry of Economics is in charge of medium- and long-term forecasting, but the State Employment Agency, supervised by the Ministry of Welfare, provides short-term forecasts of employment by occupation and education level.[vii]
The results of forecasts are presented to, and discussed with, the Ministry of Education and Science and the other main stakeholders. The Ministry of Economics has set up an advisory board to act as a coordinating and consultative body for labour market forecasting. The board is led by the Minister of Economics and involves all major labour market stakeholders, including representatives of the Ministry of Education and Science, the Ministry of Welfare, the State Employment Agency, Employers’ Confederation of Latvia (Latvijas Darba devēju konfederācija) and the Free Trade Union Confederation of Latvia (Latvijas Brīvo arodbiedrību savienība).
The role of stakeholders
The leading ministries and the PES solicit advice from stakeholders and involve them in discussions on various projects linked to skills anticipation. In 2011, 12 Sectoral Experts Councils (Nozaru ekspertu padomes) were established by the ESF project, led by the State Education Development Agency (Valsts Izglītības attīstības aģentūra). In total, there are more than 20 consultative boards, committees and working groups, which use the results of the forecasts and deal with the issues relevant to labour market and education. Over the past few years, the role of stakeholders has been outlined in the Educational Development Guidelines 2021-2027.[viii] Forecasts represent just one stage in the process of adjusting labour supply. They offer a quantitative foundation for further discussions among employment, education, and structural policymakers, social partners, academics, and other stakeholders to prepare for and adapt to anticipated structural changes in the economy in a timely manner.
Overall, stakeholders are involved in advising upon the results of labour market forecasts and in using the latter to improve the legislative framework and the implementation of policy related to the provision of skills. The main stakeholder groups involved in these processes are employees’ and employers’ organisations, education and training organisations, and sectoral organisations (e.g. Latvian ICT association). Greater emphasis is placed by the government on stakeholder involvement in improving the provision of vocational education than higher education. The Ministerial Council on Employment (established in July 2016) consisting of three ministries (Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Welfare, and Ministry of Education and Science) continues to achieve the set objective - to foster discussions on key skills policy priorities, promote faster and more coherent interinstitutional cooperation and decision-making relevant to these priorities, and to plan and implement labour market reforms. The Council on Employment is facilitating the wider involvement of policymakers, employers, sectoral experts as well as education and training providers in ensuring that the demands of the labour market are met. In early 2023, ministries agreed to convert the Employment Council into the Human Capital Development Council for better coherence and inter-ministerial cooperation in labour market transformation. This collegial body will coordinate planning, design, implementation, and monitoring of labour market adjustments, fostering human resource development in alignment with future demand and economic structural changes for societal benefit. The government is expected to approve the new institution's statutes by summer.
The Council's main tasks will include:
- Analysing and assessing national and regional labour markets and making data-driven decisions;
- Deciding on strategic human capital development objectives, defining state-provided services, and monitoring progress;
- Evaluating and proposing distribution of functions and responsibilities for adult education, lifelong learning, and labour market institutions;
- Preparing proposals for nationally and EU-funded adult education courses;
- Assessing and proposing quality requirements for adult education providers.
A Human Capital Development Steering Group comprising State Secretaries from the three involved ministries will be established to develop a strategy and action plan for achieving strategic objectives.
The Vocational Education and Employment Tripartite Cooperation sub-council works on promoting dialogue between employers and employees on training and employment issues. The sub-council consists of the representatives from various ministries (Welfare, Economy, Finance, Justice, Agriculture, Education and Science, Environmental Protection and Regional Development), the Association of Free Trade Unions and the Confederation of Employers. It is an important stakeholder as it participates in the development of the occupational standards determining the curriculum and content of vocational education programmes.
The lists of in-demand occupations (and the demand for people with a certain level or field of education) prepared by the State Employment Agency are discussed in an inter-institutional commission headed by the Ministry of Welfare that includes the social partners, academics, and other stakeholders. The aim of the discussions is to improve training programmes offered to unemployed as part of active labour market policy measures. The commission approves the list of occupations in which there is a shortage of skills supply.
The Ministry of Education and Science (MoES) and the Central Statistics Bureau have acquired a coordinated approach to VET graduate tracking - with involvement and support from stakeholders, especially those dealing with statistics and the taxation systems – based on the experience accumulated by the higher education system and international counterparts. A taskforce has been established in 2020 within the MoES to work on designing a concept for the development and implementation of a graduate tracking system in VET. The MoES has prepared the report On the establishment of a graduate tracking system in VET. The report was announced at the Meeting of State Secretaries in January 2021.[ix]
Target groups
The main target groups for the labour market forecasts are policymakers, labour market intermediaries and individuals.[x] More specifically, the groups include:
- The Ministry of Economics;
- The Ministry of Welfare;
- The State Employment Agency;
- The Ministry of Education and Science;
- The State Social Insurance Agency;
- Employers’ Confederation of Latvia;
- Free Trade Union Confederation of Latvia;
- Latvian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Latvijas Tirdzniecības un rūpniecības kamera);
- Educational institutions;
- Employers and employees;
- Young people making the transition from education to work;
- Jobseekers;
- Careers guidance counsellors.
Funding and resources
The development of skills anticipation is funded by the government and by the ESF. The labour market forecasts are carried out independently from EU funding, but the ESF plays a major role in the further development of activities and in implementing additional thematic research. Among the most recent are:
- the ESF-funded project “Development of labour market forecasting system” (2016-2022), which was implemented by the Ministry of Economics in cooperation with the State Employment Agency, and
- the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) project “Establishment of a labour supply and demand forecasting and monitoring system”, implemented by the State Employment Agency (SEA). The project aimed to significantly improve the range of SEA e-services and their accessibility, as well as to promote the use of state e-services in general. The project was implemented over a three-year period, from (August 2018 to August 2021).
Methods and tools
A variety of tools are used by stakeholders. The State Employment Agency is setting up a new system for future skills analysis with a 5-year horizon. The Agency uses descriptive statistics/stock taking, quantitative forecasting, skills and jobs surveys, qualitative research (including qualitative forecasting) and foresight (interviews and surveys with stakeholders, experts’ workshops / meetings / panels and SWOT analysis). It develops monthly skill needs analysis on skill supply and skill demand[xi].
Skills assessment
Since their establishment in 2011, the Employers' Confederation of Latvia coordinates the work of 11 of the 13 Sectoral Expert Councils which consists of sectoral employers’ organisations and their associations, sectoral trade unions, the Ministry of Education and Science, and sectoral ministries. These councils run ad-hoc skills assessments, for example on sectoral qualifications structures.
According to the Vocational Education Act, the Sectoral Expert Councils have the following tasks:
- make proposals for the establishment or updating of a sectoral qualifications structure in line with labour market requirements, and to make proposals on the professional qualifications and relevant specialisations required for the sector concerned;
- provide opinions on sector-specific occupational standards and the occupational qualification requirements they contain in the process of their development and updating;
- make proposals on trends in the number of learners required for the sectors concerned and on enrolment plans for publicly funded vocational education and training programmes.
Skills forecasts
To produce skills forecasts (by occupation and education level) Latvia uses the Dynamic Optimisation Model (developed in 2007), which was extensively modified in 2016-2022 within the ESF co-funded project “Development of labour market forecasting system”.
The labour market forecasting model used by the Ministry of Economics consists of the following three modules:[xii]
- Demand, which provides forecasts of sectoral employment demand based on macroeconomic scenarios related to future growth and productivity change;
- Supply, providing a forecast of labour and skills supply based on demographic trends, trends in educational attainment (by age) and the occupations/previous occupations in which people worked (by age); and
- Labour market, which is based on the outcomes of the supply and demand modules to give an indication of employment demand by occupation and education level.
These forecasts contain labour market prospects disaggregated by sector, occupation and education level. The aim of the medium- and long-term labour market forecasts is to provide insights into the changing structure of the labour market and support the development and planning of educational programmes. The accuracy of the predictions is based on the premise that the job market will progress in line with the projected economic growth and objectives, while the education sector will remain static, meaning there will be no substantial modifications in the availability of education, and the present patterns of obtaining education will persist.
To obtain short-term demand and supply forecasts, the State Employment Agency uses an econometric forecasting model. To model the labour market, a system dynamic approach is utilised, and the forecasting method relies on partial balance principles in which the labour market demand stimuli are determined based on the set economic growth targets. However, the labour supply adjusts to labour market demand and wage changes over the long term. The labour market forecasting model is composed of three fundamental blocks: demand, supply, and labour market, which are interconnected and complement each other. The model's fundamental principles and internal logic are grounded in the idea of labour market general equilibrium, whereby labour force supply and demand are balanced in diverse labour market segments over an extended period.
The demand for labour is contingent upon macroeconomic development scenarios, such as the expansion of economic sectors and projected changes in productivity. Occupation demand, however, is shaped by the labour needs within a given industry and the anticipated changes in its occupational structure. Conversely, the demand for education is determined by the key skills and education needed for job duties.
Forecasts for labour market supply are derived from detailed projections of demographic trends, anticipated participation levels for distinct age cohorts, a comprehensive breakdown of the existing labour force by age, professional experience (current or prior employment), and educational attainment, as well as an assessment of the current educational system and the supply of education, which encompasses the number of students, the allocation of total and state-funded study positions according to educational levels and fields.
Forecasts are reported twice a year and contain information on the future demand for people by occupation and education level, alongside an indication of skills mismatches, over the six months ahead. The aim of the short-term forecasts is to provide updated information about the most in-demand occupations and support the development of training programmes for both unemployed and employed people. The forecasts are subsequently enhanced by data from employer surveys and the LFS. The model provides forecasts by sector,[xiii] occupational groups,[xiv] regions,[xv] education level[xvi] and field of education.[xvii] In 2018, several studies co-financed by the ESF were conducted on improving the methodology of short-term demand and supply forecasts. The studies recommended to expand the data sources used (such as integrating data from different registers into the forecast model), suggested ways to develop the skills sets in occupations and proposed improved data visualisation to better meet the needs of the target groups.
Within the framework of ESF-funded project ‘Development of labour market forecasting system’ (2016-2022), significant improvements of the labour market forecasting system were made. When formulating medium- and long-range projections for the labour market, the analysis considers the following factors:
- Latvia's medium- and long-term growth objectives, which are outlined in the country's strategic planning documents;
- Economic and demographic scenarios created by the Ministry of Economics;
- Statistical data culled from labour force sample surveys and education-related statistics.
The labour market forecasts developed by the Ministry of Economics are prepared by economic sectors (8 sectors), occupational groups (40 occupational groups), and the level and thematic areas of education (3 levels of education and 23 thematic areas of education). Forecasts are based on international classification systems adapted in Latvia (NACE Rev. 2, ISCO08, ISCED2011) and are internationally comparable.
Within the ESF co-funded project “Improvement of Labour Market Forecasting System” implemented by State Employment Agency in cooperation with the Ministry of Economics, and ERDF co-funded project “Development of Labour Force Supply and Demand Forecasting and Monitoring System” the platform for labour market forecasts has been developed and the Skill forecasts module was implemented[xviii]. The Skills forecast module contains dynamic lists of most demanded professions, skills required by the specific professions and includes the option to select one’s skills to identify the dynamics of their demand on the labour market.
The short-term labour demand projections illustrate trends by occupational group up to the 4-digit level and trends in demand by skill by different sections such as statistical regions and industry groups. These projections describe trends and require analysis and interpretation with other available information. To successfully interpret the data should be considered, that short-term forecasts cannot be used to predict long-term labour market trends, and projection information should be applied to the occupational group, not to individual occupations.
Skills foresight
There is no indication of skills foresight exercises taking place in Latvia.
Other skills anticipation practices
As part of the short-term labour market forecasting process, the State Employment Agency has carried out employer surveys led by the State Education Development Agency in cooperation with the Employers’ Confederation of Latvia, the Free Trade Union Confederation of Latvia, the National Centre for Education (Valsts izglītības satura centrs) and other partners and sectoral organisations. Initially these surveys were carried out twice a year from, but in 2015-2016 the employer survey was replaced by a survey of sectoral organisations.
The methodology for short-term labour market forecasting involves several components in the overall process:
- Labour market studies with regular and systematic data, the results of which are taken into account in the development of the methodology;
- Employer surveys are used to adjust the results of the short-term labour force projections. The survey sample is designed to ensure that the results are applicable to the entire Latvian labour market;
- Econometric models for short-term labour market forecasting;
- MoE forecasts of value added by sector;
- Real (past) value added and employment data by sector (Eurostat);
- Labour Force Surveys (Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia);
- State Revenue Service data on registered employees and hours worked, as well as by age and sector.
Dissemination and use
Use of skills anticipation in policy
Ministries, national agencies and key stakeholders use skills anticipation data to draft their policies:
- Education policy: the Ministry of Education takes forecasts into account when shaping education supply;
- Employment policy: the Ministry of Welfare and State Employment Agency takes the projections into account when drawing up the list of occupations for training and retraining the unemployed, as well as when preparing short-term labour market projections;
- Migration policy: the Ministry of Economy takes into account the forecasts when drawing up the list of occupational shortages for smart labour immigration and when planning measures to support re-emigration;
- Social dialogue: data are used as a basis for discussions on current economic and labour market issues. The Free Trade Union Confederation of Latvia and the Latvian Chamber of Commerce and Industry use the forecasts to assess the labour market conditions and to propose ideas for labour policy formation.
The medium- and long-term labour market forecasts serve as a quantitative base for further discussions between policy makers, social partners, academics and other stakeholders for anticipating structural changes in various economic sectors. Forecasts are published on the websites of the main ministries/agencies involved in their production and are presented and discussed during the meetings of various consultative boards, committees and working groups.
In 2019, the Ministry of Economics commissioned the study "Opportunities for the development of a labour market anticipation system and linking medium- and long-term labour market forecasts to policy"[xix], which was developed under the ESF project "Development of the labour market forecasting system". As per study, the network of institutions involved in the labour market anticipation shows that there is currently cooperation between different institutions with specific roles in shaping labour market policies, but that cooperation on labour market anticipation is fragmented, as:
- there are at least 18 institutions dealing, inter alia, with labour market anticipation issues;
- there are at least eight councils/platforms discussing labour market projections, labour market-related changes or education;
- at least 13 non-governmental organisations also work together in the network.
Even though the results of the labour market forecasts prepared by the Ministry of Economics and the Ministry of Welfare are regularly presented to and discussed with the Ministry of Education, other institutions, social partners and experts several weaknesses have been acknowledged in relation to the dissemination and use of the forecasts, namely:
- Limited dissemination channels leading to lack of awareness in the society about changes in the labour market;
- Lack of a general discussion about labour market trends and future skills needs; and
- Lack of a coordination mechanism ensuring that the labour market forecasts are used in developing policy at the sectoral level.
The PES disseminates skills intelligence in internal conferences/seminars for staff (including career guidance counsellors) and uses it to shape formal training content/lifelong learning and support and strengthen career guidance[xx].
Target groups’ use of skills anticipation outputs
The primary target groups for skills anticipation outputs are policymakers (government ministries and agencies), the secondary being educational institutions, job seekers, and other actors. As per “Guidelines for medium and long-term work market forecasts for interpretation and use”[xxi] commissioned by the Ministry of Economy in 2019 within framework of the project "Labour Market pre-emptive redeployment system implementation", there are 10 main target groups for use of skills anticipation outputs.
Education policy objectives and orientations:
- The Ministry of Education formulates objectives and actions in education policy guidelines and other policy documents.
- The Ministry of Economy provides additional information where necessary. Other ministries define sectoral needs.
Higher education (planning of budget allocation):
- The Ministry of Education and responsible line ministries through the establishment of a budget allocation plan. Justification for the allocation should be provided when the plan is sent to other stakeholders.
- Council of Higher Education provides an assessment of the planned budget places. Higher education institutions shall provide the necessary statistical data and make a reasoned proposal for the allocation of budget places.
- Sectoral expert councils assess the allocation of budget places in vocational education by examining projections and providing a qualitative assessment.
Vocational education (supply and content planning):
- The Ministry of Education, National Centre for Education and VET institutions, adapting the content and determining the number of groups and budgets required.
- Sectoral Expert Councils, making proposals for necessary changes.
Planning of adult education offer:
- The Ministry of Education (Adult Education Management Board), vocational education and higher education institutions.
- Cooperation with business, municipalities, planning regions, NGOs, etc. in identifying the medium and long-term needs of employers and the population.
General education:
- Teachers, familiarising themselves with the expected trends in the labour market and familiarising pupils with the main findings and the nature and basic principles of using labour market forecasts.
- Educational institutions, supporting teachers and promoting cooperation, municipalities, NGOs, parents, young people.
Migration policy:
- Ministry of Economy, drawing up a list of professions eligible for immigration benefits.
- Central Statistical Bureau, State Employment Agency, State Revenue Service, The Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs, National Tripartite Co-operation Council, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Employment policy (to reduce unemployment):
- Ministry of Welfare, drawing up a training plan for the unemployed, based on short-term forecasts but also taking into account medium and long-term forecasts.
- State Employment Agency, developing short-term labour market forecasts and providing support services to the unemployed and jobseekers in cooperation with employers.
- Ministry of Economy in the development of medium and long-term forecasts.
- Employers and their organisations through advice.
Career counselling:
- State Employment Agency; educational institutions and their career counsellors.
- Sectoral representatives, social partners, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Education, The State Education Development Agency.
Individual use of forecasts / information for the public:
- Medium and long-term labour market forecasts can also be used by different members of the public to inform and make decisions related to the future labour market and education, for example: primary and secondary school students, parents of students, jobseekers, teachers, business, industry.
Please cite this document as: Cedefop. (2023). Skills anticipation in Latvia. Skills intelligence: data insights. URL [accessed DATE] |
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Endnotes
[i] Short term forecast tool by State Employment Service: https://prognozes.nva.gov.lv/en and medium and long term forecast tool by Ministry of Economy: https://prognozes.em.gov.lv/en/
[iii] Cedefop.(2023). Skills anticipation in Latvia. Skills intelligence: data insights. URL [accessed DATE] Please see the Project progress reports | Ministry of Education and Science (izm.gov.lv)
[iv] Ministry of Economics. (2018).
[v] No. 48 of 14 July 2009
[vi] No.126
[vii] Cedefop’s Matching skills database -2023 update. See also the “Short-term forecast of the labour market for 2021:survey of employers”https://www.nva.gov.lv/lv/media/11811/download?attachment
[viii] A medium-term policy planning document that sets out the structure of the education sector development and prospects for the next seven years. Ministry of Education and Science. (2013).
[ix] Cedefop.(2023). Skills anticipation in Latvia. Skills intelligence: data insights. URL [accessed DATE] Please also see the informative report "On the establishment of a graduate monitoring system in vocational education"
[x] Cedefop’s Matching skills database -2023 update See also: Ministry of Economics. (2022). An informative report on Medium and Longer-term Labour Market forecasts.
[xi] European Commission. (2022).
[xii] Ministry of Economics. (2022). An informative report on Medium and Longer-term Labour Market forecasts.
[xiii] 15 sectors (NACE).
[xiv] At 3-digit level (127 occupations) consistent with ISCO-08.
[xv] Riga, Riga area, Kurzeme, Zemgale, Latgale, Vidzeme, Latvia.
[xvi] Eight levels.
[xvii] 79 fields
[xix] https://www.em.gov.lv/lv/petijums-darba-tirgus-apsteidzoso-parkartojumu-sistemas-izveides-iespejas-un-videja-un-ilgtermina-darba-tirgus-prognozu-sasaiste-ar-ricibpolitiku
[xx] European Commission. (2022).
Data insights details
Table of contents
Page 1
SummaryPage 2
DescriptionPage 3
Methods and toolsPage 4
Dissemination and usePage 5
BibliographyPage 6
Endnotes